Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Groupama Aréna, Budapest

Ferencvarosi TC 11th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–1Full time

Plzen 33rd · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ferencvarosi TC were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Ferencvarosi TC. Plzen were without F. Wiegele and Merchas Doski. Ferencvarosi TC had 28 days of rest, Plzen 28 and had to travel 488 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel488 kmRest days28 · 28Matches / 14d0 · 0

Ferencvarosi TC54%

Draw22%

Plzen24%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.24

Ferencvarosi TC47%

Draw25%

Plzen27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Ferencvarosi TC52%

Draw23%

Plzen26%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.26

Ferencvarosi TC46%

Draw23%

Plzen31%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.39

Ferencvarosi TC55%

Draw22%

Plzen24%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.25

Over 2.5 62% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Budapest)

12°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 55%

RefereeDamian Sylwestrzak

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 50

Team strength

Ferencvarosi TC

Plzen

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

61 AttackIn forecast 54

56 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Plzen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ferencvarosi TC

Plzen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

— xGVia Att/Def 0.84

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

— Goals minus xGContext +0.16

90% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

— ShotsContext 13.88

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

50% On target shareContext 31%

— Shots in the boxContext 8.13

— Box shareContext 56%

17% ConversionContext 5%

— OffsidesContext 1.20

— Shots allowedContext 14.00

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.75

5.00 BlocksContext 3.30

— Goalkeeper savesContext 4.88

50% Save rateContext 85%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

— PassesContext 389

— Accurate passesContext 302

— Pass accuracyContext 78%

— Team ratingContext 6.77

15.75 FoulsContext 13.70

13.25 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ferencvarosi TC W

Rest28 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 66 · 3 pts vs 1.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W17 SepA · Celtic3–11.3 xPts

Plzen L

Rest28 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel488 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L17 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	28UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep	28UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	488 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

63D. Radnóti(G)

20Cadu 4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 14A. Osváth

6Á. Nagy 17M. Corbu

7V. Birmančević 16K. Zachariassen 11B. Yusuf

76K. Lisztes

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Plzen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1D. Ťapaj(G)

14Merchas Doski 98F. Prebsl 40S. Dweh 29A. Gabriel

17P. Hrošovský 36S. Pirgic

99Amar Memić 20J. Panoš 12A. Sojka

25C. Kabongo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack line −1.4% · Defence line −1.0% of weighted minutes

MID B. Ötvös Rotation 6.57 Att −1.4% Def −1.0%

5 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Bero, B. Nagy, I. Pappoe, G. Szécsi

Plzen Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals

Attack line −15.4% · Defence line −27.1% of weighted minutes

DEF F. Wiegele Core 7.28 Def −14.7%
DEF Merchas Doski Starter 6.74 Def −9.1%
ATT P. Adu Starter 6.70 Att −12.5%
DEF V. Jemelka Rotation 6.58 Def −2.3%
ATT M. Vydra Rotation 6.30 Att −2.9%
DEF J. Paluska Rotation 6.40 Def −0.9%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Tvrdoň

Total impact vs full squads

Ferencvarosi TC+2.2 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Plzen-1.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Ferencvarosi TC · Home No home games yet this season.

Plzen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Ferencvarosi TC wins1 draws1 Plzen wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

25 Sep 2025Ferencvarosi TC1–1Plzen
20 Feb 2025Plzen3–0Ferencvarosi TC
13 Feb 2025Ferencvarosi TC1–0Plzen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	3.00
Match goals	4.00	3.00	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	62%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.10
Match goals	2.90	2.10	3.20
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	11.00	1.00
Match total	14.00	6.00	9.67
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	4.00	3.71
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.22
Corners conceded	6.50	3.89
Match total	11.00	9.11	9.67
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	75% 3/4	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.40
Opponent cards	1.90	3.50
Match total	3.60	5.90	3.71
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Damian Sylwestrzak 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.72league 3.58

Red cards0.32league 0.12

Cards 5+58%league 38%

Fouls27.2league 24.7

Penalties0.38league 0.23

Home wins52%league 38%

Ferencvarosi TC1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W30 Jul 24A · The New Saints2–10

Plzen1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W21 Sep 23H · Ballkani1–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.