Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord81.1%fair odds 1.23
Draw12.3%fair odds 8.14
ADO Den Haag6.6%fair odds 15.06
Expected goals3.03 – 0.82total 3.85
Likeliest score3–09.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · ADO Den Haag → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns ADO Den Haag goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–09.9%10.09
- 2–09.8%10.20
- 3–18.1%12.37
- 2–18.0%12.50
- 4–07.5%13.32
- 1–06.2%16.17
- 4–16.1%16.31
- 1–15.6%18.00
- 5–04.6%21.96
- 5–13.7%26.90
Winning margin
42.0%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 2.38
20.8%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 4.80
18.3%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 5.48
12.3%
Draw
fair 8.14
4.7%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 21.23
1.5%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 66.20
0.4%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 237.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
8%1
16%2
20%3
19%4
34%5+
Feyenoord goals
5%0
15%1
22%2
22%3
36%4+
ADO Den Haag goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 81.1% | 80.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 12.3% | 12.6% | -0.3 pp |
| ADO Den Haag win | 6.6% | 6.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 73.9% | 72.9% | +0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.4% | 52.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 3.03 | 2.98 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 0.82 | 0.81 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win81.1%1.23
- Draw12.3%8.14
- ADO Den Haag win6.6%15.06
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw93.4%1.07
- Double chance Feyenoord or ADO Den Haag87.7%1.14
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw18.9%5.28
- Draw no bet Feyenoord92.4%1.08
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag7.6%13.21
Goals
- Over 0.597.6%1.02
- Over 1.589.9%1.11
- Over 2.573.9%1.35
- Over 3.553.6%1.86
- Over 4.534.1%2.93
- Under 1.510.1%9.94
- Under 2.526.1%3.83
- Under 3.546.4%2.16
Both teams to score
- Yes53.4%1.87
- No46.6%2.14
- Yes and over 2.547.8%2.09
- Feyenoord win and yes39.3%2.55
- Draw and yes9.9%10.13
- ADO Den Haag win and yes4.2%23.64
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.595.2%1.05
- Feyenoord over 1.580.6%1.24
- Feyenoord over 2.558.4%1.71
- ADO Den Haag over 0.555.8%1.79
- ADO Den Haag over 1.519.7%5.08
- ADO Den Haag over 2.55.0%20.09
- Feyenoord clean sheet44.2%2.26
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet4.8%20.74
- Feyenoord win to nil41.8%2.39
- ADO Den Haag win to nil2.4%41.48
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.562.8%1.59
- Feyenoord −2.542.0%2.38
- ADO Den Haag +1.537.2%2.69
- ADO Den Haag +2.558.0%1.72
- ADO Den Haag −1.51.9%51.77
- Feyenoord +1.598.1%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored29
Favourite won62.1%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right79.3%
BTTS called right72.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.2% | 60.0% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 56.2% | 72.7% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.4% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 5 of 29 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4396 | 0.4672 |
| Avg chance given to result | 50.6% | 48.3% |
| Favourite won | 80.0% | 80.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 5 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 29 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.