Feyenoord vs Ajax – 22 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 22 · 13:30 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 2nd · 52 pts · 27 played WWLDW

First leg0–2 1–1Full time

Ajax 4th · 47 pts · 27 played WDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Feyenoord. Feyenoord had 7 days of rest, Ajax 7.7 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days7 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Feyenoord44%

Draw25%

Ajax31%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.38

Feyenoord43%

Draw27%

Ajax30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Feyenoord45%

Draw25%

Ajax30%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.32

Feyenoord36%

Draw25%

Ajax38%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.55

Feyenoord44%

Draw26%

Ajax30%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.28

Over 2.5 59% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 110

Team strength

Feyenoord

Ajax

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

76 AttackIn forecast 66

61 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Ajax

2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.93

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.26

1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

89% Scored inContext 93%

30% Clean sheetsContext 26%

16.96 ShotsContext 14.59

6.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.15

38% On target shareContext 42%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.37

69% Box shareContext 71%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.06 OffsidesContext 1.74

10.67 Shots allowedContext 12.59

4.74 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.62

2.92 BlocksContext 3.84

3.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.35

68% Save rateContext 73%

54% PossessionIn forecast 57%

438 PassesContext 520

366 Accurate passesContext 447

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.02

9.52 FoulsContext 9.70

10.81 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 1.52

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.00 ShotsContext 14.10

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

38% On target shareContext 39%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

63% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.71 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.80 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.50 BlocksContext 3.11

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

68% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 59%

419 PassesContext 528

347 Accurate passesContext 452

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.00

10.40 FoulsContext 8.30

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 0.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km85 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ajax

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel57 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar	7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	85 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	13.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 21A. Ahmedhodžić 4T. Watanabe 30M. Lotomba

10L. Valente 28O. Targhalline 7J. Moder

19R. Sterling 9A. Ueda 23A. Hadj Moussa

+12 more reported missing outside this XI

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-3

26M. Paes(G)

32T. Tomiyasu 15Y. Baas 37J. Šutalo 2Lucas Rosa

48Sean Steur 24J. Mokio 18D. Klaassen

11M. Godts 25W. Weghorst 23S. Berghuis

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ajax Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord-0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Ajax+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.21points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 10-1-3
Scored: 2.43
Conceded: 1.43

Ajax · Away 1.31points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-8-2
Scored: 1.85
Conceded: 1.77

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	Ajax
Excelsior	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
NAC Breda	D 3–3 AW 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Twente	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 A
Telstar	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 3–2 AW 2–0 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Utrecht	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H	L 1–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	D 2–2 A
Heracles	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A	W 2–0 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A	W 4–0 HD 3–3 A
Heerenveen	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
PEC Zwolle	W 6–1 H	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 2–4 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
FC Volendam	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Groningen	W 1–0 A	L 1–3 AW 2–0 H
AZ Alkmaar	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 H	W 4–1 HW 3–1 A
Points	52 of 78 · 2.00 per game	44 of 78 · 1.69 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Feyenoord wins0 draws3 Ajax wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

14 Dec 2025Ajax2–0Feyenoord
2 Feb 2025Ajax2–1Feyenoord
30 Oct 2024Feyenoord0–2Ajax
27 Sep 2023Ajax0–4Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	2.22	1.93
Conceded per game	1.44	1.26
Match goals	3.67	3.19	3.07
Over 1.5	85%	96%
Over 2.5	67%	59%	59%
Over 3.5	44%	48%
Both teams scored	59%	70%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	26%
Failed to score	11%	7%
Games	27	27

	Feyenoord	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	2.00
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	3.10	3.20	3.07
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	7.28	4.84
Corners conceded	3.68	5.24
Match total	10.96	10.08	10.29
Over 8.5	72% 18/25	56% 14/25
Over 9.5	60% 15/25	44% 11/25
Over 10.5	48% 12/25	40% 10/25
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.56
Opponent cards	1.37	1.67
Match total	3.07	3.23	3.40
Over 3.5	41% 11/27	37% 10/27
Over 4.5	22% 6/27	30% 8/27

	Feyenoord	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	7.10	4.25
Corners conceded	2.90	5.50
Match total	10.00	9.75	10.29
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.40	0.70
Opponent cards	1.80	1.70
Match total	4.20	2.40	3.40
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 110 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.29league 3.23

Red cards0.13league 0.17

Cards 5+26%league 27%

Fouls21.4league 21.4

Penalties0.30league 0.23

Home wins42%league 45%

Feyenoord12 with this referee

Record3-4-5 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

L18 Jan 26H · Sparta Rotterdam3–41
D21 Sep 25A · AZ Alkmaar3–33
L11 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven2–33
L2 Feb 25A · Ajax1–22
D18 Jan 25A · Willem II1–10

Ajax11 with this referee

Record5-2-4 Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.1 Pens for · against3 · 0

D8 Feb 26A · AZ Alkmaar1–10
L9 Nov 25A · Utrecht1–20
D17 Aug 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
W18 May 25H · Twente2–00
W6 Apr 25H · NAC Breda3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.