Feyenoord vs Aston Villa – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 30th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–2Full time

Aston Villa 10th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 64). Absences weigh more on Aston Villa. Feyenoord had 4.3 days of rest, Aston Villa 4.3 and had to travel 439 km.

Away travel439 kmRest days4.3 · 4.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Feyenoord35%

Draw26%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.45

Feyenoord33%

Draw27%

Aston Villa40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Feyenoord33%

Draw27%

Aston Villa40%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.47

Feyenoord28%

Draw26%

Aston Villa47%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.63

Feyenoord34%

Draw27%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.39

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · SloveniaRade Obrenovič

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.08
Matches 13

Team strength

Feyenoord

Aston Villa

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

76 AttackIn forecast 83

61 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Aston Villa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

0.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

90% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.10 ShotsContext 10.10

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

35% On target shareContext 30%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.11

69% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.14

8.80 Shots allowedContext 12.90

3.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.60

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

65% Save rateContext 80%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

416 PassesContext 421

344 Accurate passesContext 352

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.90 FoulsContext 10.50

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,587 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel439 km543 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep	4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	439 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,587 km	543 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.7	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

5G. Smal 4T. Watanabe 21A. Ahmedhodžić 26G. Read

6I. Hwang 14S. Steijn 40L. Valente

16L. Sauer 9A. Ueda 23A. Hadj Moussa

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40M. Bizot(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

44B. Kamara 7J. McGinn

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 29E. Guessand

11O. Watkins

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord+1.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Aston Villa-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home No home games yet this season.

Aston Villa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.80
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Feyenoord	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	0.71
Conceded per game	0.63	0.86
Match goals	2.50	1.57	2.80
Over 1.5	63%	43%
Over 2.5	38%	29%	53%
Over 3.5	25%	14%
Both teams scored	25%	29%	57%
Clean sheets	63%	43%
Failed to score	13%	57%
Games	8	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	8.00
Corners conceded	7.00	3.00
Match total	9.00	11.00	9.52
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Feyenoord	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	5.67
Corners conceded	4.11	4.56
Match total	9.78	10.23	9.52
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.20
Opponent cards	1.50	2.50
Match total	3.40	4.70	4.37
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rade Obrenovič Slovenia · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.92league 4.19

Red cards0.08league 0.19

Cards 5+46%league 41%

Fouls22.5league 26.3

Penalties0.08league 0.30

Home wins38%league 37%

Feyenoord

No previous matches with this referee.

Aston Villa

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.