Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Celtic usually keep the ball (67% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Feyenoord had 4.2 days of rest, Celtic 21 and had to travel 720 km.
Away travel720 kmRest days4.2 · 21Matches / 14d1 · 0
Feyenoord45%
Draw25%
Celtic29%
Feyenoord46%
Draw26%
Celtic28%
Feyenoord46%
Draw25%
Celtic29%
Feyenoord38%
Draw26%
Celtic37%
Feyenoord45%
Draw26%
Celtic28%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
RefereeSebastian Gishamer
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 35
Team strength
Feyenoord
Celtic
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
76
AttackIn forecast
74
61
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCeltic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordCeltic
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.85
25%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.50
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
37%
On target shareContext
45%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
51%
Box shareContext
79%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.33
9.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
2.33
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
67%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
398
PassesContext
488
332
Accurate passesContext
410
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.81
17.50
FoulsContext
13.25
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.20
ShotsContext
16.90
7.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
39%
On target shareContext
31%
12.10
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
68%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
10.30
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.50
BlocksContext
3.00
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
66%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
428
PassesContext
589
360
Accurate passesContext
511
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.40
FoulsContext
14.40
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celtic
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel720 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Celtic |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 720 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
30M. Lotomba
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
14S. Steijn
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1K. Schmeichel(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
6A. Trusty
51C. Donovan
42C. McGregor
27A. Engels
13H. Yang
41R. Hatate
14L. McCowan
38D. Maeda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celtic
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Celtic+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Celtic · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Feyenoord wins0 draws1 Celtic wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 13 Dec 2023Celtic2–1Feyenoord
- 19 Sep 2023Feyenoord2–0Celtic
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.75 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Feyenoord | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.75 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 10.75 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 3.25 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Feyenoord | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.77 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.30 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sebastian Gishamer 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 4.04
Red cards0.23league 0.17
Cards 5+34%league 43%
Fouls23.2league 24.8
Penalties0.23league 0.39
Home wins63%league 49%
FeyenoordNo previous matches with this referee.
CelticNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord4 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Celtic4 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
7
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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