Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord
3rd · 49 pts · 26 played
WWWLD
First leg2–1
2–1Full time
Excelsior
15th · 26 pts · 26 played
WLLLL
Feyenoord64.2%fair odds 1.56
Draw20.6%fair odds 4.85
Excelsior15.2%fair odds 6.58
Expected goals2.15 – 0.95total 3.10
Likeliest score2–010.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.4%9.65
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 1–19.7%10.31
- 1–09.2%10.91
- 3–07.4%13.47
- 3–17.1%14.11
- 0–05.0%20.07
- 2–24.7%21.17
- 1–24.4%22.74
- 4–04.0%25.09
Winning margin
21.6%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 4.64
19.5%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 5.12
23.1%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 4.33
20.6%
Draw
fair 4.85
10.0%
Excelsior by 1
fair 10.01
3.9%
Excelsior by 2
fair 25.92
1.3%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 74.50
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Feyenoord goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Excelsior goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 64.2% | 62.9% | +1.2 pp |
| Draw | 20.6% | 21.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Excelsior win | 15.2% | 15.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 56.8% | +3.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.8% | 52.8% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 2.15 | 2.04 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 0.95 | 0.92 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win64.2%1.56
- Draw20.6%4.85
- Excelsior win15.2%6.58
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw84.8%1.18
- Double chance Feyenoord or Excelsior79.4%1.26
- Double chance Excelsior or draw35.8%2.79
- Draw no bet Feyenoord80.9%1.24
- Draw no bet Excelsior19.1%5.23
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.582.1%1.22
- Over 2.559.9%1.67
- Over 3.537.6%2.66
- Over 4.520.2%4.94
- Under 1.517.9%5.57
- Under 2.540.1%2.50
- Under 3.562.4%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes54.8%1.82
- No45.2%2.21
- Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
- Feyenoord win and yes30.7%3.26
- Draw and yes15.7%6.39
- Excelsior win and yes8.5%11.77
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.588.3%1.13
- Feyenoord over 1.563.3%1.58
- Feyenoord over 2.536.3%2.75
- Excelsior over 0.561.5%1.63
- Excelsior over 1.524.8%4.04
- Excelsior over 2.57.2%13.86
- Feyenoord clean sheet38.5%2.60
- Excelsior clean sheet11.7%8.57
- Feyenoord win to nil33.5%2.98
- Excelsior win to nil6.7%14.95
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.541.1%2.43
- Feyenoord −2.521.6%4.64
- Excelsior +1.558.9%1.70
- Excelsior +2.578.4%1.27
- Excelsior −1.55.2%19.23
- Feyenoord +1.594.8%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored240
Favourite won50.8%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right62.1%
BTTS called right63.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 38.0% | 35.0% |
| 40–50% | 90 | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| 50–60% | 53 | 54.8% | 43.4% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.3% | 64.5% |
| 70–80% | 19 | 74.2% | 84.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 194 of 240 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5925 | 0.5870 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 194 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 240 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.