Feyenoord vs Excelsior – 15 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 15 · 13:30 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 3rd · 49 pts · 26 played WWWLD

First leg2–1 2–1Full time

Excelsior 15th · 26 pts · 26 played WLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were clear favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Excelsior. Feyenoord had 6.9 days of rest, Excelsior 7.7 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days6.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Feyenoord64%

Draw21%

Excelsior15%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.95

Feyenoord67%

Draw20%

Excelsior13%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.84

Feyenoord65%

Draw21%

Excelsior15%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.94

Feyenoord57%

Draw23%

Excelsior20%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.07

Feyenoord63%

Draw22%

Excelsior16%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.92

Over 2.5 60% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 98

Team strength

Feyenoord

Excelsior

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

76 AttackIn forecast 21

61 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Excelsior

2.23 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.04

1.46 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.69

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

88% Scored inContext 77%

31% Clean sheetsContext 19%

17.04 ShotsContext 11.65

6.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92

38% On target shareContext 34%

11.65 Shots in the boxContext 7.92

69% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.39

10.62 Shots allowedContext 14.96

4.82 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.69

2.84 BlocksContext 4.15

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.08

68% Save rateContext 69%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

442 PassesContext 393

369 Accurate passesContext 308

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.79

9.54 FoulsContext 11.96

10.81 Fouls sufferedContext 8.15

1.54 Yellow cardsContext 1.42

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.80 ShotsContext 11.40

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

38% On target shareContext 32%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

62% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.90 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.30 BlocksContext 3.60

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

63% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 50%

433 PassesContext 435

360 Accurate passesContext 347

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.10 FoulsContext 9.40

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 7.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km422 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar	7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	422 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 24T. Kraaijeveld 7J. Moder 20M. Deijl

10L. Valente 28O. Targhalline 23A. Hadj Moussa

19R. Sterling 9A. Ueda 6I. Hwang

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 14L. Schouten 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

23I. Yegoian 20L. Hartjes 10N. Naujoks

11G. de Regt 33Jerolldino Bergraaf 30D. Sanches Fernandes

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord-0.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Excelsior+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.15points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 9-1-3
Scored: 2.46
Conceded: 1.46

Excelsior · Away 1.00points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-6
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 2.08

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	Excelsior
NAC Breda	D 3–3 AW 2–0 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Twente	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Telstar	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Utrecht	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H	L 1–4 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H
Heracles	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A	L 1–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A	L 0–1 H
Heerenveen	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A
Ajax	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
PEC Zwolle	W 6–1 H	W 2–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 2–4 H	L 0–5 A
FC Volendam	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 A
Groningen	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	D 3–3 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Points	46 of 75 · 1.84 per game	26 of 75 · 1.04 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Feyenoord wins0 draws0 Excelsior wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

16 Aug 2025Excelsior1–2Feyenoord
25 Nov 2023Excelsior2–4Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	2.23	1.04
Conceded per game	1.46	1.69
Match goals	3.69	2.73	3.10
Over 1.5	85%	77%
Over 2.5	65%	62%	60%
Over 3.5	46%	23%
Both teams scored	58%	62%	55%
Clean sheets	31%	19%
Failed to score	12%	23%
Games	26	26

	Feyenoord	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.10
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	3.50	2.80	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	7.21	4.27
Corners conceded	3.63	5.35
Match total	10.84	9.62	10.31
Over 8.5	71% 17/24	65% 17/26
Over 9.5	58% 14/24	42% 11/26
Over 10.5	46% 11/24	31% 8/26
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.54
Opponent cards	1.38	1.38
Match total	3.03	2.92	3.44
Over 3.5	38% 10/26	31% 8/26
Over 4.5	23% 6/26	23% 6/26

	Feyenoord	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	6.89	4.60
Corners conceded	2.67	5.70
Match total	9.56	10.30	10.31
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.30
Match total	4.20	2.60	3.44
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 98 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.25

Red cards0.11league 0.18

Cards 5+43%league 28%

Fouls23.1league 21.4

Penalties0.30league 0.24

Home wins49%league 44%

Feyenoord10 with this referee

Record8-0-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 2

W25 Jan 26H · Heracles4–22
L14 Dec 25A · Ajax0–21
W31 Aug 25A · Sparta Rotterdam4–02
W16 Mar 25A · Twente6–23
W8 Feb 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–00

Excelsior4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W6 Feb 26A · NAC Breda2–02
W29 Nov 25H · NAC Breda1–04
L17 Feb 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–42
L25 Nov 23H · Feyenoord2–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.