Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord68.2%fair odds 1.47
Draw18.4%fair odds 5.43
GO Ahead Eagles13.4%fair odds 7.47
Expected goals2.40 – 0.99total 3.39
Likeliest score2–09.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · GO Ahead Eagles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns GO Ahead Eagles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.7%10.28
- 2–19.6%10.41
- 1–18.4%11.87
- 3–07.8%12.84
- 3–17.7%13.00
- 1–07.7%13.02
- 2–24.7%21.07
- 4–04.7%21.39
- 4–14.6%21.66
- 1–24.0%25.30
Winning margin
26.2%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 3.82
20.1%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 4.98
21.9%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 4.56
18.4%
Draw
fair 5.43
8.8%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 11.40
3.4%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 29.41
1.2%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 82.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
25%5+
Feyenoord goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 68.2% | 67.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 18.4% | 18.7% | -0.2 pp |
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 13.4% | 13.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 65.0% | +0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.5% | 56.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 2.40 | 2.37 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 0.99 | 0.98 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win68.2%1.47
- Draw18.4%5.43
- GO Ahead Eagles win13.4%7.47
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw86.6%1.15
- Double chance Feyenoord or GO Ahead Eagles81.6%1.23
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw31.8%3.14
- Draw no bet Feyenoord83.6%1.20
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles16.4%6.10
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.6%1.17
- Over 2.565.8%1.52
- Over 3.543.9%2.28
- Over 4.525.4%3.94
- Under 1.514.4%6.95
- Under 2.534.2%2.92
- Under 3.556.1%1.78
Both teams to score
- Yes57.5%1.74
- No42.5%2.35
- Yes and over 2.549.1%2.04
- Feyenoord win and yes34.7%2.88
- Draw and yes14.6%6.84
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes8.1%12.32
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.590.9%1.10
- Feyenoord over 1.569.2%1.45
- Feyenoord over 2.543.1%2.32
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.562.8%1.59
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.526.0%3.85
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.57.8%12.81
- Feyenoord clean sheet37.2%2.68
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet9.1%11.04
- Feyenoord win to nil33.4%2.99
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil5.3%19.01
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.546.3%2.16
- Feyenoord −2.526.2%3.82
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.553.7%1.86
- GO Ahead Eagles +2.573.8%1.35
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.54.6%21.71
- Feyenoord +1.595.4%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored15
Favourite won60.0%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right73.3%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.4% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 56.4% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 15 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 15 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.