Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel151 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Feyenoord—%
Draw—%
Heerenveen—%
Weather (Rotterdam)
Forecast from 20 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Feyenoord and Heerenveen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Feyenoord
+1.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.42xG against1.09
-
Trend
Feyenoord
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Heerenveen
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Feyenoord
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Heerenveen
−0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.27xG against1.58
-
Trend
Heerenveen
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Feyenoord
+1.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.42xG against1.09
-
Trend
Feyenoord
3.4
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Feyenoord
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Heerenveen
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Heerenveen
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Feyenoord
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Feyenoord
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Heerenveen
−0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.27xG against1.58
-
Insight
Feyenoord
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Streaks
-
Streak
Feyenoord
5
Wins in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Streak
Feyenoord
5
Unbeaten in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Streak
Feyenoord
10+
Scoring in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
FeyenoordHeerenveen
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
76
AttackIn forecast
36
61
DefenceIn forecast
40
92
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordHeerenveen
3.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
2.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
100%
Scored inContext
67%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
21.33
ShotsContext
15.11
8.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
39%
On target shareContext
40%
15.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
70%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.11
Shots allowedContext
14.56
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.25
BlocksContext
4.44
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
71%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
490
PassesContext
493
428
Accurate passesContext
421
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.22
Team ratingContext
6.92
8.78
FoulsContext
8.67
12.22
Fouls sufferedContext
10.78
1.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.98
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.70
ShotsContext
14.90
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
40%
On target shareContext
40%
12.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
68%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.50
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.67
BlocksContext
4.70
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
62%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
473
PassesContext
498
410
Accurate passesContext
425
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.20
FoulsContext
8.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
WWWWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
Heerenveen
LDWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel151 km302 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 28 Feb | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 302 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Last XI · not confirmed
1T. Ernst(G)
35Mika Màrmol
24T. Kraaijeveld
4T. Watanabe
26G. Read
34C. Vanhoutte
8G. Zechiël
27G. Diarra
14S. Steijn
23A. Hadj Moussa
19Nacho Ferri
Heerenveen
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
8N. Courtens
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
14L. Smans
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Heerenveen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Heerenveen · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | W 4–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 7–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Feyenoord wins1 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 11 Jan 2026Heerenveen2–2Feyenoord
- 13 Sep 2025Feyenoord1–0Heerenveen
- 18 May 2025Heerenveen2–0Feyenoord
- 23 Nov 2024Feyenoord3–0Heerenveen
- 16 Sep 2023Feyenoord6–1Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.44 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 4.56 | 2.89 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 5.10 | 2.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.22 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 2.33 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 1/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.40 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Feyenoord9 games · scored 31 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 34 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
