Eredivisie Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 28 · 16:00 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Feyenoord 1st · 23 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel57 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Ajax—%
Draw—%
Feyenoord—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Amsterdam)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ajax and Feyenoord. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AjaxFeyenoord
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 59
66 AttackIn forecast 76
55 DefenceIn forecast 61
63 Form indexContext 92
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AjaxFeyenoord
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.44
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11
2.06 xGVia Att/Def 2.90
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext +0.54
100% Scored inContext 100%
22% Clean sheetsContext 44%
22.78 ShotsContext 21.33
8.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.22
36% On target shareContext 39%
16.22 Shots in the boxContext 15.00
71% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 16%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.83
10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.11
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.88
2.67 BlocksContext 3.25
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44
74% Save rateContext 71%
62% PossessionIn forecast 54%
581 PassesContext 490
516 Accurate passesContext 428
89% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.03 Team ratingContext 7.22
9.56 FoulsContext 8.78
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.22
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.22
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
2.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.42
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09
+0.87 Goals minus xGContext +0.98
100% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
21.70 ShotsContext 18.70
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50
36% On target shareContext 40%
15.40 Shots in the boxContext 12.80
71% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 18%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.71
9.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
2.60 BlocksContext 3.67
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80
74% Save rateContext 62%
62% PossessionIn forecast 50%
576 PassesContext 473
509 Accurate passesContext 410
88% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.05 Team ratingContext 7.06
9.80 FoulsContext 10.20
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts
Feyenoord
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Telstar4–32.1 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Como3–21.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–01.8 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Utrecht5–02.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · PEC Zwolle7–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ajax Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Feb7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways115 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt
Feyenoord Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Telstar (A) 4–3, 17 Oct
1T. Ernst(G)
35Mika Màrmol 24T. Kraaijeveld 4T. Watanabe 26G. Read
34C. Vanhoutte 8G. Zechiël
27G. Diarra 14S. Steijn 23A. Hadj Moussa
19Nacho Ferri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Feyenoord Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.80
Feyenoord · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAjaxFeyenoord
NEC Nijmegen D 1–1 H W 3–1 A
Telstar W 4–0 A W 4–3 A
PEC Zwolle W 2–0 A W 7–0 A
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Ajax wins1 draws1 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.20 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 20%
  • 22 Mar 2026Feyenoord1–1Ajax
  • 14 Dec 2025Ajax2–0Feyenoord
  • 2 Feb 2025Ajax2–1Feyenoord
  • 30 Oct 2024Feyenoord0–2Ajax
  • 27 Sep 2023Ajax0–4Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AjaxFeyenoordForecast
Scored per game 3.003.44
Conceded per game 1.331.11
Match goals 4.334.56
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 78%78%
Both teams scored 78%56%
Clean sheets 22%44%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games99
AjaxFeyenoordForecast
Scored per game 2.703.40
Conceded per game 1.201.70
Match goals 3.905.10
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 70%90%
Over 3.5 70%90%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AjaxFeyenoordLeague
Corners
Corners won6.886.22
Corners conceded3.004.11
Match total9.8810.3310.39
Over 8.563% 5/867% 6/9
Over 9.550% 4/867% 6/9
Over 10.538% 3/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.001.22
Opponent cards1.781.44
Match total3.782.662.77
Over 3.556% 5/944% 4/9
Over 4.533% 3/911% 1/9
AjaxFeyenoordLeague
Corners
Corners won6.885.20
Corners conceded3.003.70
Match total9.888.9010.39
Over 8.563% 5/850% 5/10
Over 9.550% 4/850% 5/10
Over 10.538% 3/850% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.901.30
Opponent cards2.001.40
Match total3.902.702.77
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Feyenoord9 games · scored 31 · conceded 10
4 1 0-15
5 1 16-30
8 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 34 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
6 3 16-30
7 1 31-45
6 3 46-60
7 3 61-75
4 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax Feyenoord Feb 2816:00 Willem II Groningen Feb 2816:00 Excelsior Heerenveen Feb 2816:00 ADO Den Haag Twente Feb 2816:00 Fortuna Sittard Utrecht Feb 2816:00 NEC Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar Feb 2816:00 Cambuur PEC Zwolle Feb 2816:00 Sparta Rotterdam PSV Eindhoven Feb 2816:00 Telstar GO Ahead Eagles Feb 2816:00