Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord76.1%fair odds 1.31
Draw15.6%fair odds 6.42
NAC Breda8.3%fair odds 12.04
Expected goals2.56 – 0.75total 3.31
Likeliest score2–012.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.0%8.33
- 3–010.2%9.77
- 1–09.0%11.10
- 2–19.0%11.15
- 3–17.6%13.07
- 1–17.4%13.54
- 4–06.5%15.27
- 4–14.9%20.44
- 0–04.0%24.76
- 2–23.4%29.84
Winning margin
33.0%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 3.03
21.7%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 4.60
21.3%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 4.69
15.6%
Draw
fair 6.42
6.0%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 16.75
1.9%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 53.95
0.5%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 207.10
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Feyenoord goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
25%4+
NAC Breda goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 76.1% | 75.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 15.6% | 16.2% | -0.7 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 8.3% | 8.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 61.8% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.9% | 47.6% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 2.56 | 2.47 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 0.75 | 0.72 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win76.1%1.31
- Draw15.6%6.42
- NAC Breda win8.3%12.04
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw91.7%1.09
- Double chance Feyenoord or NAC Breda84.4%1.18
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw23.9%4.19
- Draw no bet Feyenoord90.2%1.11
- Draw no bet NAC Breda9.8%10.16
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.584.6%1.18
- Over 2.564.2%1.56
- Over 3.542.1%2.38
- Over 4.523.8%4.19
- Under 1.515.4%6.49
- Under 2.535.8%2.79
- Under 3.557.9%1.73
Both teams to score
- Yes48.9%2.04
- No51.1%1.96
- Yes and over 2.541.5%2.41
- Feyenoord win and yes32.8%3.05
- Draw and yes11.5%8.67
- NAC Breda win and yes4.6%21.73
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.592.3%1.08
- Feyenoord over 1.572.4%1.38
- Feyenoord over 2.547.1%2.12
- NAC Breda over 0.552.6%1.90
- NAC Breda over 1.517.2%5.80
- NAC Breda over 2.54.0%24.92
- Feyenoord clean sheet47.4%2.11
- NAC Breda clean sheet7.7%12.92
- Feyenoord win to nil43.3%2.31
- NAC Breda win to nil3.7%27.00
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.554.8%1.83
- Feyenoord −2.533.0%3.03
- NAC Breda +1.545.2%2.21
- NAC Breda +2.567.0%1.49
- NAC Breda −1.52.3%42.80
- Feyenoord +1.597.7%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result40.3%
1X2 Brier0.565
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 40.5% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 54.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 1 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3173 | 0.3191 |
| Avg chance given to result | 54.0% | 53.9% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 1 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.