Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 16). Feyenoord had ? days of rest, NAC Breda ? and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Feyenoord76%
Draw16%
NAC Breda8%
Feyenoord75%
Draw16%
NAC Breda9%
Feyenoord76%
Draw16%
NAC Breda8%
Feyenoord69%
Draw19%
NAC Breda12%
Feyenoord75%
Draw16%
NAC Breda9%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 51
Team strength
Feyenoord
NAC Breda
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
76
AttackIn forecast
19
61
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordNAC Breda
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.86
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.70
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
40%
On target shareContext
27%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
64%
Box shareContext
60%
18%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
11.20
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.10
BlocksContext
3.11
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
407
PassesContext
434
333
Accurate passesContext
356
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.96
8.60
FoulsContext
10.30
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
30M. Lotomba
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
27G. Diarra
14S. Steijn
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
5T. Kongolo
15E. Mahmutović
25C. Valerius
16M. Balard
2B. Lucassen
10M. Nassoh
14K. Sowah
32J. Talvitie
17S. van Hooijdonk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
No home games yet this season.
NAC Breda · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Feyenoord wins1 draws0 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 15 Feb 2025NAC Breda0–0Feyenoord
- 22 Sep 2024Feyenoord2–0NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Feyenoord | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 11.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Feyenoord | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 7.30 | 8.77 | 11.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.00
Red cards0.16league 0.50
Cards 5+37%league 50%
Fouls20.1league 23.5
Penalties0.16league 0.50
Home wins27%league 50%
Feyenoord3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 May 25A · Heracles4–11
- W27 Oct 24A · Utrecht2–02
- D28 Jan 24H · Twente0–00
NAC Breda1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D24 Nov 24A · Willem II2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FeyenoordNAC BredaFeyenoord10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
5
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
