Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 26). Feyenoord had 4.1 days of rest, Sturm Graz 42 and had to travel 957 km.
Away travel957 kmRest days4.1 · 42Matches / 14d2 · 0
Feyenoord59%
Draw23%
Sturm Graz18%
Feyenoord58%
Draw23%
Sturm Graz18%
Feyenoord59%
Draw23%
Sturm Graz18%
Feyenoord51%
Draw25%
Sturm Graz24%
Feyenoord58%
Draw23%
Sturm Graz18%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 26
Team strength
Feyenoord
Sturm Graz
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
76
AttackIn forecast
32
61
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordSturm Graz
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.83
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
35%
On target shareContext
31%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
60%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.00
Shots allowedContext
12.17
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.33
BlocksContext
3.20
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
58%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
421
PassesContext
367
357
Accurate passesContext
283
85%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.75
14.17
FoulsContext
17.17
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
0.58
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.70
ShotsContext
12.50
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
27%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
73%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.17
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.75
BlocksContext
3.30
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
66%
Save rateContext
61%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
459
PassesContext
418
386
Accurate passesContext
325
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.50
FoulsContext
14.30
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km302 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sturm Graz
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel957 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Sturm Graz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 957 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 302 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
21A. Ahmedhodžić
4T. Watanabe
30M. Lotomba
40L. Valente
6I. Hwang
11Gonçalo Borges
14S. Steijn
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
Sturm Graz
Confirmed XI
53D. Khudyakov(G)
17E. Karić
5T. Oermann
47E. Aiwu
23A. Malić
10O. Kiteishvili
39Luca Weinhandl
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
19T. Horvat
77M. Malone
20S. Jatta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sturm Graz
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sturm Graz+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sturm Graz · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Panathinaikos | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Feyenoord | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 2.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.83 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.80 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.34 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Feyenoord | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.12 | 10.00 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.90 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.09
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls24.6league 24.4
Penalties0.31league 0.35
Home wins27%league 50%
Feyenoord1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Oct 24A · Benfica3–11
Sturm Graz1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Oct 25H · Rangers2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord6 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
7
76-90
Sturm Graz6 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 21 · conceded 24
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
11
76-90
Sturm Graz10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
3
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg
Maccabi Tel Aviv
10
Feyenoord
Sturm Graz
30
Brann
FC Midtjylland
33
Malmo FF
FK Crvena Zvezda
01
Bologna
Celtic
22
BSC Young Boys
Lyon
01
Plzen
FC Porto
11
Fenerbahce
Aston Villa
01
PAOK
Real Betis
20
Nice
GO Ahead Eagles
31
Utrecht
Genk
02
SC Braga
Nottingham Forest
10
Rangers
Ludogorets
10
AS Roma
VfB Stuttgart
20
Celta Vigo
Lille
21
Red Bull Salzburg
FC Basel 1893
31
Dinamo Zagreb
FCSB
41
Ferencvarosi TC
Panathinaikos
11