Feyenoord vs Telstar – 22 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 22 · 19:00 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 2nd · 45 pts · 23 played LWLWW

First leg2–1 2–1Full time

Telstar 17th · 18 pts · 23 played DLLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were clear favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. Feyenoord had 7.3 days of rest, Telstar 7.2 and had to travel 61 km.

Away travel61 kmRest days7.3 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Feyenoord70%

Draw18%

Telstar12%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.91

Feyenoord63%

Draw22%

Telstar15%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89

Feyenoord69%

Draw19%

Telstar13%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.93

Feyenoord63%

Draw21%

Telstar16%

Expected goals 2.16 – 1.02

Feyenoord69%

Draw19%

Telstar12%

Expected goals 2.32 – 0.90

Over 2.5 65% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 55

Team strength

Feyenoord

Telstar

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

76 AttackIn forecast 24

61 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Telstar

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.39 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

91% Scored inContext 74%

35% Clean sheetsContext 13%

17.48 ShotsContext 12.57

6.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.45

37% On target shareContext 34%

11.96 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

69% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.37

10.35 Shots allowedContext 15.70

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.09

2.77 BlocksContext 4.68

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.43

68% Save rateContext 73%

55% PossessionIn forecast 43%

447 PassesContext 352

375 Accurate passesContext 271

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.78 FoulsContext 11.13

10.52 Fouls sufferedContext 10.52

1.52 Yellow cardsContext 1.26

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.20 ShotsContext 11.30

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

34% On target shareContext 31%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.38

61% Box shareContext 55%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.38

11.90 Shots allowedContext 14.80

5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40

3.00 BlocksContext 4.33

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.90

68% Save rateContext 77%

54% PossessionIn forecast 43%

446 PassesContext 346

372 Accurate passesContext 260

84% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.00 FoulsContext 10.80

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 0.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel61 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Feb	7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	61 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

5G. Smal 21A. Ahmedhodžić 4T. Watanabe 20M. Deijl

10L. Valente 6I. Hwang

15J. Bos 7J. Moder 23A. Hadj Moussa

9A. Ueda

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 17N. Rossen 23C. Hatenboer 3G. Alders

39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp 37Sem van Duijn

19N. Þórisson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord+1.7 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Telstar-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.08points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 8-1-3
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.50

Telstar · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-5
Scored: 0.82
Conceded: 1.36

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	Telstar
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H
Utrecht	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H	D 1–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	W 2–0 A
Heracles	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A	D 1–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A	L 0–1 A
Heerenveen	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	L 2–3 H
Twente	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Ajax	L 0–2 A	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 6–1 H	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 2–4 H	D 2–2 H
FC Volendam	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 H
Groningen	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	D 3–3 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
NAC Breda	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	42 of 66 · 1.91 per game	18 of 66 · 0.82 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Feyenoord wins0 draws0 Telstar wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

30 Nov 2025Telstar1–2Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.17
Conceded per game	1.39	1.70
Match goals	3.70	2.87	3.33
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	65%	48%	65%
Over 3.5	48%	39%
Both teams scored	57%	65%	55%
Clean sheets	35%	13%
Failed to score	9%	26%
Games	23	23

	Feyenoord	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	1.70
Match goals	3.20	2.90	3.33
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	7.48	4.91
Corners conceded	3.76	6.23
Match total	11.24	11.14	10.27
Over 8.5	76% 16/21	82% 18/22
Over 9.5	62% 13/21	68% 15/22
Over 10.5	48% 10/21	59% 13/22
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.35
Opponent cards	1.43	1.70
Match total	3.08	3.05	3.50
Over 3.5	39% 9/23	30% 7/23
Over 4.5	22% 5/23	26% 6/23

	Feyenoord	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	7.56	4.90
Corners conceded	3.89	5.70
Match total	11.45	10.60	10.27
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.80
Match total	4.00	2.70	3.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 55 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.45league 3.29

Red cards0.31league 0.20

Cards 5+35%league 30%

Fouls22.5league 21.6

Penalties0.18league 0.25

Home wins47%league 44%

Feyenoord5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

D11 Jan 26A · Heerenveen2–20
W30 Nov 25A · Telstar2–13
W22 Sep 24H · NAC Breda2–02
D14 Jan 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–22
W8 Oct 23A · PEC Zwolle2–00

Telstar2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L30 Nov 25H · Feyenoord1–20
D23 Aug 25H · FC Volendam2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.