Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord
2nd · 45 pts · 23 played
LWLWW
First leg2–1
2–1Full time
Telstar
17th · 18 pts · 23 played
DLLDD
Feyenoord70.2%fair odds 1.42
Draw17.9%fair odds 5.59
Telstar11.9%fair odds 8.38
Expected goals2.42 – 0.91total 3.33
Likeliest score2–010.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · Telstar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns Telstar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.4%9.57
- 2–19.5%10.48
- 3–08.4%11.87
- 1–18.3%12.04
- 1–08.2%12.17
- 3–17.7%12.99
- 4–05.1%19.62
- 4–14.7%21.48
- 2–24.4%22.95
- 0–04.0%25.09
Winning margin
27.6%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 3.63
20.6%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 4.85
22.0%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 4.55
17.9%
Draw
fair 5.59
8.0%
Telstar by 1
fair 12.43
2.9%
Telstar by 2
fair 34.04
1.0%
Telstar by 3+
fair 104.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Feyenoord goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
Telstar goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 70.2% | 68.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 17.9% | 18.7% | -0.8 pp |
| Telstar win | 11.9% | 12.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 62.5% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.0% | 53.9% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 2.42 | 2.32 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Telstar | 0.91 | 0.90 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win70.2%1.42
- Draw17.9%5.59
- Telstar win11.9%8.38
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw88.1%1.14
- Double chance Feyenoord or Telstar82.1%1.22
- Double chance Telstar or draw29.8%3.35
- Draw no bet Feyenoord85.5%1.17
- Draw no bet Telstar14.5%6.88
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.585.0%1.18
- Over 2.564.7%1.55
- Over 3.542.7%2.34
- Over 4.524.3%4.11
- Under 1.515.0%6.65
- Under 2.535.3%2.83
- Under 3.557.3%1.75
Both teams to score
- Yes55.0%1.82
- No45.0%2.22
- Yes and over 2.546.7%2.14
- Feyenoord win and yes34.1%2.94
- Draw and yes13.9%7.20
- Telstar win and yes7.0%14.23
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.591.1%1.10
- Feyenoord over 1.569.6%1.44
- Feyenoord over 2.543.5%2.30
- Telstar over 0.559.9%1.67
- Telstar over 1.523.2%4.30
- Telstar over 2.56.5%15.36
- Feyenoord clean sheet40.1%2.49
- Telstar clean sheet8.9%11.24
- Feyenoord win to nil36.1%2.77
- Telstar win to nil4.9%20.37
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.548.2%2.08
- Feyenoord −2.527.6%3.63
- Telstar +1.551.8%1.93
- Telstar +2.572.4%1.38
- Telstar −1.53.9%25.68
- Feyenoord +1.596.1%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored215
Favourite won50.7%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right63.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 78 | 45.0% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 55.0% | 44.9% |
| 60–70% | 28 | 64.2% | 64.3% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.3% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 192 of 215 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5954 | 0.5895 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 192 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 215 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.