Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 37). Feyenoord come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Feyenoord had 2.7 days of rest, Utrecht 2.8 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days2.7 · 2.8Matches / 14d4 · 3
Feyenoord58%
Draw23%
Utrecht19%
Feyenoord59%
Draw23%
Utrecht18%
Feyenoord56%
Draw24%
Utrecht20%
Feyenoord50%
Draw25%
Utrecht25%
Feyenoord61%
Draw23%
Utrecht17%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 38
Team strength
Feyenoord
Utrecht
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
76
AttackIn forecast
32
61
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordUtrecht
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
100%
Scored inContext
71%
71%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
16.71
ShotsContext
15.71
5.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
38%
11.86
Shots in the boxContext
10.43
73%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.29
Shots allowedContext
10.43
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
79%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
427
PassesContext
438
356
Accurate passesContext
358
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.14
FoulsContext
9.29
11.14
Fouls sufferedContext
13.29
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.60
ShotsContext
12.70
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
37%
On target shareContext
37%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
70%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.75
8.60
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.88
BlocksContext
4.22
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
63%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
412
PassesContext
436
343
Accurate passesContext
353
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.90
FoulsContext
10.50
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,587 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Utrecht
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel48 km1,846 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 53 | Moderate · 28 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,587 km | 1,846 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 6 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 13.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
14S. Steijn
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
14Z. Iqbal
27A. Engwanda
15A. Blake
21G. Zechiël
22Miguel Rodríguez
91S. Haller
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Utrecht-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.00
Utrecht · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Heerenveen | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 15 · 3.00 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Feyenoord wins0 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game2.67 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 12 Jan 2025Feyenoord1–2Utrecht
- 27 Oct 2024Utrecht0–2Feyenoord
- 3 Sep 2023Utrecht1–5Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.86 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.44 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 8.86 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 3.43 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.90 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.16league 3.51
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+29%league 35%
Fouls19.4league 22.2
Penalties0.26league 0.20
Home wins47%league 49%
Feyenoord6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 May 25A · Heerenveen0–21
- W5 Apr 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–02
- W22 Feb 25H · Almere City FC2–10
- W23 Nov 24H · Heerenveen3–00
- W17 Dec 23A · Heracles4–00
UtrechtNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord7 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Utrecht7 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
