Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord57.9%fair odds 1.73
Draw23.1%fair odds 4.33
Utrecht19.1%fair odds 5.25
Expected goals1.92 – 1.01total 2.93
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · Utrecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns Utrecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.16
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 2–09.8%10.21
- 1–09.7%10.34
- 3–16.3%15.75
- 3–06.3%15.99
- 0–05.9%17.00
- 1–25.3%19.00
- 2–25.0%19.83
- 0–14.9%20.56
Winning margin
16.6%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 6.04
17.9%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 5.59
23.4%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 4.27
23.1%
Draw
fair 4.33
12.1%
Utrecht by 1
fair 8.24
5.0%
Utrecht by 2
fair 19.92
1.9%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 52.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Feyenoord goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Utrecht goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 57.9% | 60.7% | -2.8 pp |
| Draw | 23.1% | 22.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Utrecht win | 19.1% | 16.7% | +2.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 54.4% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 52.0% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 1.92 | 1.94 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.01 | 0.92 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win57.9%1.73
- Draw23.1%4.33
- Utrecht win19.1%5.25
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw80.9%1.24
- Double chance Feyenoord or Utrecht76.9%1.30
- Double chance Utrecht or draw42.1%2.37
- Draw no bet Feyenoord75.2%1.33
- Draw no bet Utrecht24.8%4.04
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.6%1.26
- Over 2.556.1%1.78
- Over 3.533.7%2.96
- Over 4.517.3%5.77
- Under 1.520.4%4.90
- Under 2.543.9%2.28
- Under 3.566.3%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.544.0%2.27
- Feyenoord win and yes27.5%3.64
- Draw and yes17.2%5.81
- Utrecht win and yes10.2%9.78
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.585.3%1.17
- Feyenoord over 1.557.1%1.75
- Feyenoord over 2.530.1%3.33
- Utrecht over 0.563.8%1.57
- Utrecht over 1.527.0%3.71
- Utrecht over 2.58.3%12.04
- Feyenoord clean sheet36.2%2.76
- Utrecht clean sheet14.7%6.80
- Feyenoord win to nil30.4%3.29
- Utrecht win to nil8.8%11.32
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.534.5%2.90
- Feyenoord −2.516.6%6.04
- Utrecht +1.565.5%1.53
- Utrecht +2.583.4%1.20
- Utrecht −1.56.9%14.45
- Feyenoord +1.593.1%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored69
Favourite won55.1%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.545
Over 2.5 called right69.6%
BTTS called right60.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 37.9% | 22.2% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 44.4% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 55.9% | 55.0% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 63.7% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.2% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 47 of 69 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5405 | 0.5061 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.6% | 46.4% |
| Favourite won | 53.2% | 61.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 47 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 69 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.