Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 53). Fiorentina had 7 days of rest, AS Roma 2.8 and had to travel 234 km.
Away travel234 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Fiorentina33%
Draw28%
AS Roma39%
Fiorentina33%
Draw27%
AS Roma39%
Fiorentina33%
Draw28%
AS Roma39%
Fiorentina27%
Draw27%
AS Roma46%
Fiorentina34%
Draw27%
AS Roma39%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 55
Team strength
Fiorentina
AS Roma
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
74
42
AttackIn forecast
72
34
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaAS Roma
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.20
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
-0.55
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.80
2.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
18%
On target shareContext
36%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
56%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.40
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
2.20
BlocksContext
1.67
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
70%
Save rateContext
93%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
387
PassesContext
482
317
Accurate passesContext
399
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.40
FoulsContext
13.60
16.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.30
ShotsContext
13.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
29%
On target shareContext
35%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
66%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
3.22
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.40
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
2.89
BlocksContext
2.75
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
69%
Save rateContext
77%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
404
PassesContext
483
334
Accurate passesContext
405
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.60
FoulsContext
14.30
15.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km136 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel234 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 234 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 136 km | 946 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.2 | 13.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
18Pablo Marí
5M. Pongračić
21R. Gosens
14H. Nicolussi
8R. Mandragora
2Dodô
10A. Guðmundsson
22J. Fazzini
20M. Kean
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
19M. Çelik
12K. Tsimikas
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
43Wesley
35T. Baldanzi
18M. Soulé
9A. Dovbyk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- AS Roma-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
AS Roma · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Torino | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Fiorentina wins2 draws3 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.38
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 4 May 2025AS Roma1–0Fiorentina
- 27 Oct 2024Fiorentina5–1AS Roma
- 10 Mar 2024Fiorentina2–2AS Roma
- 10 Dec 2023AS Roma1–1Fiorentina
- 27 May 2023Fiorentina2–1AS Roma
- 15 Jan 2023AS Roma2–0Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 1.20 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 0% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Fiorentina | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 1.43 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 29% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 14% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 14% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 29% | |
| Games | 5 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.40 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.20 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Fiorentina | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.20 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.73league 3.61
Red cards0.20league 0.13
Cards 5+56%league 36%
Fouls24.1league 26.0
Penalties0.15league 0.25
Home wins40%league 38%
Fiorentina3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Mar 25A · Napoli1–22
- D1 Sep 24H · Monza2–22
- D29 Jan 23A · Lazio1–13
AS Roma6 with this referee
Record3-3-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D6 Apr 25H · Juventus1–11
- D5 May 24H · Juventus1–11
- W23 Dec 23H · Napoli2–07
- W5 Nov 23H · Lecce2–13
- D22 May 23H · Salernitana2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina4 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
AS Roma5 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Fiorentina9 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
