Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fiorentina. Fiorentina had 5.4 days of rest, Atalanta 5.1 and had to travel 247 km.
Away travel247 kmRest days5.4 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fiorentina36%
Draw28%
Atalanta36%
Fiorentina35%
Draw27%
Atalanta38%
Fiorentina36%
Draw28%
Atalanta36%
Fiorentina29%
Draw27%
Atalanta44%
Fiorentina37%
Draw27%
Atalanta37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
RefereeM. Perri
Team strength
Fiorentina
Atalanta
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
42
AttackIn forecast
48
34
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaAtalanta
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.95
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
70%
Scored inContext
78%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
12.65
ShotsContext
14.27
3.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
27%
On target shareContext
31%
7.95
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
61%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.15
OffsidesContext
2.46
12.89
Shots allowedContext
11.54
4.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.38
BlocksContext
3.11
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.48
70%
Save rateContext
80%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
419
PassesContext
482
354
Accurate passesContext
409
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.92
FoulsContext
11.16
15.27
Fouls sufferedContext
9.89
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
60%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.30
ShotsContext
12.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
29%
On target shareContext
33%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
62%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.78
14.10
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
3.50
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
77%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
397
PassesContext
474
331
Accurate passesContext
396
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.60
FoulsContext
11.30
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest5.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atalanta
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel247 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.4Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 247 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 90 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 94 | 93 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
53O. Christensen(G)
21R. Gosens
3D. Rugani
15P. Comuzzo
2Dodô
4M. Brescianini
8R. Mandragora
80G. Fabbian
10A. Guðmundsson
91R. Piccoli
17J. Harrison
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
57M. Sportiello(G)
69H. Ahanor
4I. Hien
42G. Scalvini
6Y. Musah
8M. Pašalić
15M. de Roon
16R. Bellanova
7K. Sulemana
10L. Samardžić
18G. Raspadori
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Atalanta+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
1.11points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-8-6
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.11
Atalanta · Away
1.39points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-7-5
- Scored
- 1.39
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Sassuolo | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Lecce | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Inter | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Udinese | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Como | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 41 of 108 · 1.14 per game | 55 of 108 · 1.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Fiorentina wins1 draws3 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.33
Over 2.544%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 30 Nov 2025Atalanta2–0Fiorentina
- 30 Mar 2025Fiorentina1–0Atalanta
- 15 Sep 2024Atalanta3–2Fiorentina
- 2 Jun 2024Atalanta2–3Fiorentina
- 17 Sep 2023Fiorentina3–2Atalanta
- 17 Apr 2023Fiorentina1–1Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 0.95 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.30 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 38% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 51% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 22% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.40 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 5.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.58 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 8.94 | 9.83 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 20/36 | 61% 22/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 17/36 | 47% 17/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 9/36 | 39% 14/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 1.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.51 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 3.19 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 26/37 | 43% 16/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 21/37 | 11% 4/37 | |
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.90 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.80 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Fiorentina36 games · scored 39 · conceded 47
3
8
0-15
7
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
10
10
46-60
7
7
61-75
7
10
76-90
Atalanta37 games · scored 50 · conceded 35
8
3
0-15
5
8
16-30
11
6
31-45
8
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
9
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
