Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 41). Absences weigh more on Como. Fiorentina had 7.9 days of rest, Como 5.9 and had to travel 283 km.
Away travel283 kmRest days7.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fiorentina52%
Draw26%
Como22%
Fiorentina53%
Draw25%
Como22%
Fiorentina51%
Draw26%
Como23%
Fiorentina45%
Draw27%
Como28%
Fiorentina54%
Draw25%
Como22%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Baccini
Team strength
Fiorentina
Como
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
42
AttackIn forecast
72
34
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaComo
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.79
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.67
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
21%
On target shareContext
25%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
58%
Box shareContext
58%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
11.67
Shots allowedContext
10.33
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
1.67
BlocksContext
4.67
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
68%
Save rateContext
56%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
417
PassesContext
474
346
Accurate passesContext
410
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.67
FoulsContext
15.00
16.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.10
ShotsContext
14.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
33%
On target shareContext
30%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
62%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.60
Shots allowedContext
10.20
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.88
BlocksContext
3.88
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
474
PassesContext
476
402
Accurate passesContext
409
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.50
FoulsContext
12.80
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel283 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 283 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21R. Gosens
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
22J. Fazzini
8R. Mandragora
14H. Nicolussi
48T. Lamptey
20M. Kean
91R. Piccoli
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
28I. Smolčić
8Sergi Roberto
23M. Perrone
19N. Kühn
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
7Álvaro Morata
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Como-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Como · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Fiorentina wins0 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 16 Feb 2025Fiorentina0–2Como
- 24 Nov 2024Como0–2Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Fiorentina | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 11.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 6.66 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Fiorentina | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.38 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.90 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Fiorentina3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Como3 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
