Fiorentina
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fiorentina52.3%fair odds 1.91
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.88
Como21.9%fair odds 4.56
Expected goals1.65 – 0.98total 2.63
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Como
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fiorentina ↓ · Como → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fiorentina goals, columns Como goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.13
- 1–011.3%8.88
- 2–09.8%10.23
- 2–19.6%10.41
- 0–07.8%12.76
- 0–16.5%15.44
- 1–25.7%17.43
- 3–05.4%18.65
- 3–15.3%18.98
- 2–24.7%21.18
Winning margin
12.2%
Fiorentina by 3+
fair 8.19
16.2%
Fiorentina by 2
fair 6.16
23.8%
Fiorentina by 1
fair 4.20
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.88
14.0%
Como by 1
fair 7.15
5.8%
Como by 2
fair 17.27
2.2%
Como by 3+
fair 46.41
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Fiorentina goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Como goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 52.3% | 53.6% | -1.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 24.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Como win | 21.9% | 21.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% | 52.7% | -3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.1% | 53.8% | -2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Fiorentina | 1.65 | 1.75 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Como | 0.98 | 1.03 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fiorentina win52.3%1.91
- Draw25.8%3.88
- Como win21.9%4.56
- Double chance Fiorentina or draw78.1%1.28
- Double chance Fiorentina or Como74.2%1.35
- Double chance Como or draw47.7%2.10
- Draw no bet Fiorentina70.4%1.42
- Draw no bet Como29.6%3.38
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.09
- Over 1.574.4%1.34
- Over 2.548.9%2.05
- Over 3.527.0%3.70
- Over 4.512.7%7.90
- Under 1.525.6%3.91
- Under 2.551.1%1.96
- Under 3.573.0%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes51.1%1.96
- No48.9%2.05
- Yes and over 2.538.8%2.58
- Fiorentina win and yes22.7%4.41
- Draw and yes18.0%5.57
- Como win and yes10.5%9.54
Team goals
- Fiorentina over 0.580.7%1.24
- Fiorentina over 1.549.0%2.04
- Fiorentina over 2.522.8%4.38
- Como over 0.562.6%1.60
- Como over 1.525.8%3.88
- Como over 2.57.7%12.96
- Fiorentina clean sheet37.4%2.67
- Como clean sheet19.3%5.18
- Fiorentina win to nil29.6%3.38
- Como win to nil11.5%8.73
Handicap
- Fiorentina −1.528.4%3.52
- Fiorentina −2.512.2%8.19
- Como +1.571.6%1.40
- Como +2.587.8%1.14
- Como −1.57.9%12.59
- Fiorentina +1.592.1%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result39.6%
1X2 Brier0.626
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right48.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 37.7% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 44.3% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 52.5% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 63.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 17 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6477 | 0.6211 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.6% | 37.9% |
| Favourite won | 47.1% | 52.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.