Fiorentina
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fiorentina57.6%fair odds 1.74
Draw23.4%fair odds 4.27
Frosinone19.0%fair odds 5.26
Expected goals1.87 – 0.99total 2.86
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Frosinone
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fiorentina ↓ · Frosinone → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fiorentina goals, columns Frosinone goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%8.98
- 1–010.1%9.86
- 2–010.0%9.97
- 2–19.9%10.08
- 0–06.3%15.95
- 3–06.3%15.95
- 3–16.2%16.14
- 1–25.2%19.12
- 0–15.1%19.67
- 2–24.9%20.40
Winning margin
16.1%
Fiorentina by 3+
fair 6.23
17.9%
Fiorentina by 2
fair 5.60
23.6%
Fiorentina by 1
fair 4.23
23.4%
Draw
fair 4.27
12.2%
Frosinone by 1
fair 8.20
5.0%
Frosinone by 2
fair 20.14
1.8%
Frosinone by 3+
fair 54.64
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Fiorentina goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Frosinone goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 57.6% | 57.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Frosinone win | 19.0% | 18.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 55.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.7% | 54.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Fiorentina | 1.87 | 1.89 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Frosinone | 0.99 | 0.99 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fiorentina win57.6%1.74
- Draw23.4%4.27
- Frosinone win19.0%5.26
- Double chance Fiorentina or draw81.0%1.23
- Double chance Fiorentina or Frosinone76.6%1.31
- Double chance Frosinone or draw42.4%2.36
- Draw no bet Fiorentina75.2%1.33
- Draw no bet Frosinone24.8%4.03
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.5%1.83
- Over 3.532.2%3.10
- Over 4.516.2%6.16
- Under 1.521.5%4.65
- Under 2.545.5%2.20
- Under 3.567.8%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes53.7%1.86
- No46.3%2.16
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- Fiorentina win and yes26.6%3.76
- Draw and yes17.2%5.82
- Frosinone win and yes9.9%10.08
Team goals
- Fiorentina over 0.584.7%1.18
- Fiorentina over 1.555.9%1.79
- Fiorentina over 2.528.9%3.46
- Frosinone over 0.562.8%1.59
- Frosinone over 1.526.0%3.85
- Frosinone over 2.57.8%12.79
- Fiorentina clean sheet37.2%2.69
- Frosinone clean sheet15.3%6.52
- Fiorentina win to nil30.9%3.23
- Frosinone win to nil9.1%11.02
Handicap
- Fiorentina −1.533.9%2.95
- Fiorentina −2.516.1%6.23
- Frosinone +1.566.1%1.51
- Frosinone +2.583.9%1.19
- Frosinone −1.56.8%14.72
- Fiorentina +1.593.2%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won72.7%
Avg chance given to result50.9%
1X2 Brier0.425
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right27.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.3% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.0% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 61.4% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 75.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 88.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 1 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.0899 | 0.1385 |
| Avg chance given to result | 75.7% | 70.1% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 1 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓AC Milan 2–0 Venezia76·15·9
- ✓AS Roma 4–0 Fiorentina61·21·17
- ✗Bologna 0–1 Lazio46·25·29
- ✓Torino 1–2 AC Milan34·26·41
- ✓Atalanta 2–1 Sassuolo63·21·16
- ✓Venezia 0–2 Lecce36·26·37
- ✓Frosinone 0–1 Juventus19·21·60
- ✗Parma 0–1 Cagliari42·26·31
- ✓Genoa 0–2 Napoli26·25·49
- ✓Inter 4–1 Monza88·8·4
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.