Fiorentina vs Frosinone – 29 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 17:30 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 19th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–3Full time

Frosinone 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Frosinone. Fiorentina had 4.9 days of rest, Frosinone 6 and had to travel 293 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel293 kmRest days4.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fiorentina58%

Draw22%

Frosinone20%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.99

Fiorentina62%

Draw21%

Frosinone17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.91

Fiorentina59%

Draw22%

Frosinone19%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.98

Fiorentina50%

Draw24%

Frosinone25%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.11

Fiorentina58%

Draw22%

Frosinone19%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.99

Over 2.5 55% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

30°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 36%

Warm

RefereeGiuseppe Collu

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 21

Team strength

Fiorentina

Frosinone

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

42 AttackIn forecast 41

34 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Frosinone

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Frosinone

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.83 xGVia Att/Def —

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.20 ShotsContext 14.40

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

30% On target shareContext 32%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

63% Box shareContext 55%

7% ConversionContext 5%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.80 Shots allowedContext 13.70

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.30 BlocksContext 3.70

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

73% Save rateContext 82%

46% PossessionIn forecast 43%

392 PassesContext 333

328 Accurate passesContext 250

84% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.60 FoulsContext 11.40

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina L

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km468 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 43 · 0 pts vs 0.8 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L24 AugA · AS Roma0–40.8 xPts

Frosinone L

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel293 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L23 AugH · Juventus0–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Frosinone
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Aug	6Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	293 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	468 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21V. Valdepenas 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

14A. Atta 42Christ Inao Oulaï 27C. Ndour

11A. Guðmundsson 32Mateo Pellegrino 30Franco Mastantuono

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Frosinone Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22L. Palmisani(G)

79G. Bracaglia 30I. Monterisi 3G. Calvani 20A. Oyono

14Giacomo Calò 73P. Masini

17G. Kvernadze 10R. Schmid 40S. Fini

9A. Raimondo

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Frosinone Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina-0.6 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Frosinone+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home No home games yet this season.

Frosinone · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Fiorentina wins1 draws0 Frosinone wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

11 Feb 2024Fiorentina5–1Frosinone
28 Sep 2023Frosinone1–1Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Frosinone	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	4.00	1.00
Match goals	4.00	1.00	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	Fiorentina	Frosinone	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.00
Conceded per game	1.10	1.00
Match goals	1.80	1.00	2.86
Over 1.5	60%	0%
Over 2.5	20%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	30%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	40%	100%
Games	10	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Frosinone	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.00
Corners conceded	2.00	12.00
Match total	5.00	15.00	8.45
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.36
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Fiorentina	Frosinone	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	6.00
Corners conceded	3.70	4.30
Match total	7.40	10.30	8.45
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.40
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	3.90	3.30	3.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giuseppe Collu 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 3.36

Red cards0.14league 0.00

Cards 5+33%league 9%

Fouls23.7league 23.6

Penalties0.24league 0.00

Home wins43%league 36%

Fiorentina1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W2 Feb 25H · Genoa2–13

Frosinone

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.