Fiorentina vs Juventus – 22 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 22 · 17:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 20th · 5 pts · 11 played LDLLD

1–1Full time

Juventus 6th · 19 pts · 11 played LLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 48). Fiorentina had 13.1 days of rest, Juventus 14 and had to travel 317 km.

Away travel317 kmRest days13.1 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fiorentina33%

Draw28%

Juventus39%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.33

Fiorentina33%

Draw27%

Juventus40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Fiorentina33%

Draw28%

Juventus39%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.32

Fiorentina27%

Draw27%

Juventus46%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.50

Fiorentina34%

Draw27%

Juventus39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.42

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 71

Team strength

Fiorentina

Juventus

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

42 AttackIn forecast 57

34 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Juventus

0.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.64 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.91

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

64% Scored inContext 64%

18% Clean sheetsContext 36%

11.27 ShotsContext 16.55

2.73 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.55

24% On target shareContext 34%

7.09 Shots in the boxContext 10.18

60% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.56

12.27 Shots allowedContext 10.82

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.91

2.45 BlocksContext 3.00

3.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.91

66% Save rateContext 66%

51% PossessionIn forecast 59%

380 PassesContext 499

310 Accurate passesContext 431

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.91

13.82 FoulsContext 12.36

17.18 Fouls sufferedContext 10.73

2.18 Yellow cardsContext 1.64

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.51

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.00 ShotsContext 16.40

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

29% On target shareContext 35%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 10.10

65% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 6%

2.89 OffsidesContext 1.63

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

2.70 BlocksContext 4.00

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

68% Save rateContext 72%

53% PossessionIn forecast 55%

400 PassesContext 487

326 Accurate passesContext 421

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.82

13.90 FoulsContext 13.60

17.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km393 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel317 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.1Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov	14Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	393 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

3-5-2

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 18Pablo Marí 5M. Pongračić

65F. Parisi 7S. Sohm 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora 2Dodô

20M. Kean 91R. Piccoli

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

8T. Koopmeiners 6L. Kelly 15P. Kalulu

18F. Kostić 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 27A. Cambiaso

10K. Yıldız 22W. McKennie

9D. Vlahović

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Juventus-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Juventus · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Juventus
Genoa	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Inter	L 0–3 A	W 4–3 H
AC Milan	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Como	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Torino	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 H
Points	2 of 15 · 0.40 per game	8 of 15 · 1.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Fiorentina wins2 draws4 Juventus wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.88 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

16 Mar 2025Fiorentina3–0Juventus
29 Dec 2024Juventus2–2Fiorentina
7 Apr 2024Juventus1–0Fiorentina
5 Nov 2023Fiorentina0–1Juventus
12 Feb 2023Juventus1–0Fiorentina
3 Sep 2022Fiorentina1–1Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.82	1.27
Conceded per game	1.64	0.91
Match goals	2.45	2.18	2.55
Over 1.5	73%	64%
Over 2.5	64%	27%	47%
Over 3.5	27%	18%
Both teams scored	64%	45%	52%
Clean sheets	18%	36%
Failed to score	36%	36%
Games	11	11

	Fiorentina	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.70	1.00
Match goals	2.50	2.20	2.55
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.36	5.30
Corners conceded	4.45	4.20
Match total	8.81	9.50	8.83
Over 8.5	55% 6/11	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	55% 6/11	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	27% 3/11	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.27	1.73
Opponent cards	2.00	2.09
Match total	4.27	3.82	4.00
Over 3.5	64% 7/11	55% 6/11
Over 4.5	55% 6/11	36% 4/11

	Fiorentina	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.38
Corners conceded	3.67	4.75
Match total	8.11	10.13	8.83
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.30
Opponent cards	2.10	2.10
Match total	4.70	3.40	4.00
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 3.89

Red cards0.20league 0.13

Cards 5+27%league 39%

Fouls24.7league 26.2

Penalties0.21league 0.31

Home wins25%league 37%

Fiorentina5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 0

W30 Mar 25H · Atalanta1–00
W6 Feb 25H · Inter3–01
D3 Sep 22H · Juventus1–11
W20 Feb 22H · Atalanta1–02
D22 Dec 21A · Verona1–11

Juventus9 with this referee

Record3-5-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.9 Pens for · against0 · 0

D4 May 25A · Bologna1–13
D14 Jan 25A · Atalanta1–11
D21 Sep 24H · Napoli0–01
W21 Jan 24A · Lecce3–01
W7 May 23A · Atalanta2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.