Fiorentina
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fiorentina33.2%fair odds 3.01
Draw28.0%fair odds 3.57
Juventus38.8%fair odds 2.57
Expected goals1.21 – 1.33total 2.55
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Juventus
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fiorentina ↓ · Juventus → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fiorentina goals, columns Juventus goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.50
- 0–19.8%10.24
- 1–08.8%11.33
- 0–08.5%11.78
- 1–28.5%11.83
- 2–17.7%13.00
- 0–27.0%14.37
- 2–05.8%17.35
- 2–25.1%19.49
- 1–33.8%26.60
Winning margin
4.7%
Fiorentina by 3+
fair 21.30
9.6%
Fiorentina by 2
fair 10.44
18.9%
Fiorentina by 1
fair 5.29
28.0%
Draw
fair 3.57
20.8%
Juventus by 1
fair 4.80
11.6%
Juventus by 2
fair 8.64
6.4%
Juventus by 3+
fair 15.53
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Fiorentina goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Juventus goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 33.2% | 33.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Juventus win | 38.8% | 39.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.9% | 51.0% | -4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.5% | 55.7% | -3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Fiorentina | 1.21 | 1.30 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Juventus | 1.33 | 1.42 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fiorentina win33.2%3.01
- Draw28.0%3.57
- Juventus win38.8%2.57
- Double chance Fiorentina or draw61.2%1.64
- Double chance Fiorentina or Juventus72.0%1.39
- Double chance Juventus or draw66.8%1.50
- Draw no bet Fiorentina46.1%2.17
- Draw no bet Juventus53.9%1.85
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.9%1.37
- Over 2.546.9%2.13
- Over 3.525.3%3.96
- Over 4.511.5%8.67
- Under 1.527.1%3.69
- Under 2.553.1%1.88
- Under 3.574.7%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes52.5%1.91
- No47.5%2.10
- Yes and over 2.539.1%2.56
- Fiorentina win and yes15.3%6.52
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Juventus win and yes17.6%5.67
Team goals
- Fiorentina over 0.570.3%1.42
- Fiorentina over 1.534.3%2.92
- Fiorentina over 2.512.4%8.09
- Juventus over 0.573.7%1.36
- Juventus over 1.538.5%2.60
- Juventus over 2.515.1%6.63
- Fiorentina clean sheet26.3%3.80
- Juventus clean sheet29.7%3.37
- Fiorentina win to nil17.8%5.60
- Juventus win to nil21.2%4.72
Handicap
- Fiorentina −1.514.3%7.00
- Fiorentina −2.54.7%21.30
- Juventus +1.585.7%1.17
- Juventus +2.595.3%1.05
- Juventus −1.518.0%5.55
- Fiorentina +1.582.0%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored112
Favourite won46.4%
Avg chance given to result39.2%
1X2 Brier0.631
Over 2.5 called right57.1%
BTTS called right47.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 37.9% | 47.1% |
| 40–50% | 37 | 44.3% | 37.8% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 54.2% | 32.0% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.1% | 68.4% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 91 of 112 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6290 | 0.6086 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.9% | 39.5% |
| Favourite won | 45.1% | 45.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 91 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 112 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.