Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 58). Fiorentina had 13.1 days of rest, Napoli 14 and had to travel 409 km.
Away travel409 kmRest days13.1 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fiorentina34%
Draw28%
Napoli38%
Fiorentina35%
Draw27%
Napoli38%
Fiorentina34%
Draw28%
Napoli38%
Fiorentina27%
Draw27%
Napoli45%
Fiorentina35%
Draw27%
Napoli38%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 25
Team strength
Fiorentina
Napoli
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
42
AttackIn forecast
61
34
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaNapoli
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.33
-0.87
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
50%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
10.00
ShotsContext
15.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
25%
On target shareContext
29%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
50%
Box shareContext
63%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
10.50
Shots allowedContext
8.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
BlocksContext
1.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
80%
Save rateContext
100%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
397
PassesContext
604
333
Accurate passesContext
544
84%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.50
FoulsContext
16.00
18.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
13.90
ShotsContext
13.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
61%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.56
13.60
Shots allowedContext
8.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
4.13
BlocksContext
2.30
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
68%
Save rateContext
88%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
475
PassesContext
524
406
Accurate passesContext
460
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.60
FoulsContext
11.90
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel409 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 409 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
15P. Comuzzo
21R. Gosens
7S. Sohm
44N. Fagioli
8R. Mandragora
2Dodô
9E. Džeko
20M. Kean
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
37L. Spinazzola
4A. Buongiorno
31S. Beukema
22G. Di Lorenzo
68S. Lobotka
8S. McTominay
11K. De Bruyne
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
19R. Højlund
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Napoli+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
No home games yet this season.
Napoli · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Fiorentina wins2 draws4 Napoli wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 9 Mar 2025Napoli2–1Fiorentina
- 4 Jan 2025Fiorentina0–3Napoli
- 17 May 2024Fiorentina2–2Napoli
- 8 Oct 2023Napoli1–3Fiorentina
- 7 May 2023Napoli1–0Fiorentina
- 28 Aug 2022Fiorentina0–0Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Fiorentina | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 3.00 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Fiorentina | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.26 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.72league 3.55
Red cards0.12league 0.09
Cards 5+24%league 32%
Fouls23.2league 25.6
Penalties0.16league 0.14
Home wins68%league 45%
Fiorentina3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Bologna3–24
- W10 Nov 24H · Verona3–11
- W13 May 24H · Monza2–11
Napoli1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Jan 25H · Verona2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Napoli2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 15 · conceded 3
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
