Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were clear favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fiorentina. Fiorentina had 9.1 days of rest, Pisa 9.9 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days9.1 · 9.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fiorentina69%
Draw20%
Pisa11%
Fiorentina67%
Draw20%
Pisa13%
Fiorentina69%
Draw20%
Pisa11%
Fiorentina62%
Draw23%
Pisa15%
Fiorentina71%
Draw18%
Pisa11%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 101
Team strength
Fiorentina
Pisa
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
42
AttackIn forecast
15
34
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaPisa
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
76%
Scored inContext
52%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.52
ShotsContext
10.20
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
27%
On target shareContext
28%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.86
64%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.84
13.20
Shots allowedContext
14.88
4.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.52
BlocksContext
4.17
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
65%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
420
PassesContext
310
355
Accurate passesContext
235
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.16
FoulsContext
12.88
16.16
Fouls sufferedContext
11.84
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.30
ShotsContext
11.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
32%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
70%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.20
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.20
BlocksContext
3.44
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
65%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
424
PassesContext
300
363
Accurate passesContext
222
86%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.50
FoulsContext
13.60
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km566 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest9.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 9.9Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 566 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
65F. Parisi
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
4M. Brescianini
44N. Fagioli
27C. Ndour
19M. Solomon
20M. Kean
17J. Harrison
Pisa
Confirmed XI
12Nícolas(G)
2R. Bozhinov
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
6M. Marin
35Felipe Loyola
15I. Touré
19S. Iling-Junior
32S. Moreo
81F. Stojilković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Pisa+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
0.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.58
Pisa · Away
0.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-8-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Como | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Lazio | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Parma | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Udinese | W 5–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Verona | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Genoa | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–3 A | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 20 of 72 · 0.83 per game | 14 of 72 · 0.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Fiorentina wins1 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 28 Sep 2025Pisa0–0Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 2.48 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 48% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 48% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Fiorentina | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.48 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 8.87 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 14/25 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 4.84 | 3.96 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 18/25 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 15/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Fiorentina | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.90 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.50 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.76
Red cards0.21league 0.20
Cards 5+39%league 36%
Fouls23.9league 25.3
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins46%league 38%
Fiorentina6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W21 Dec 25H · Udinese5–13
- D29 Dec 24A · Juventus2–21
- L31 Aug 22A · Udinese0–12
- L16 May 22A · Sampdoria1–43
- W10 Apr 22A · Napoli3–23
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina24 games · scored 28 · conceded 37
2
5
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
5
61-75
4
9
76-90
Pisa25 games · scored 20 · conceded 42
4
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
12
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
12
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
