Fiorentina vs Torino – 7 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 24 Sat, Feb 7 · 19:45 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 18th · 17 pts · 23 played DDWLL

2–2Full time

Torino 13th · 26 pts · 23 played LLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fiorentina. Fiorentina had 7.1 days of rest, Torino 6.3 and had to travel 317 km.

Away travel317 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fiorentina52%

Draw26%

Torino22%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.96

Fiorentina48%

Draw26%

Torino26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11

Fiorentina50%

Draw26%

Torino23%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.00

Fiorentina45%

Draw28%

Torino27%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.08

Fiorentina53%

Draw25%

Torino22%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.06

Over 2.5 48% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 64

Team strength

Fiorentina

Torino

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

42 AttackIn forecast 39

34 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Torino

1.09 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.96

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.74

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

74% Scored inContext 65%

13% Clean sheetsContext 39%

13.52 ShotsContext 11.83

3.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.26

27% On target shareContext 36%

8.87 Shots in the boxContext 7.65

64% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.05

13.13 Shots allowedContext 13.13

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.04

3.43 BlocksContext 3.74

3.09 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

65% Save rateContext 60%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

423 PassesContext 361

358 Accurate passesContext 285

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.57 FoulsContext 13.57

16.04 Fouls sufferedContext 10.78

2.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.10 ShotsContext 12.30

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

30% On target shareContext 37%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

68% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.38

13.30 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.10 BlocksContext 3.80

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

63% Save rateContext 59%

57% PossessionIn forecast 45%

475 PassesContext 370

415 Accurate passesContext 288

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.80 FoulsContext 13.90

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km819 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel317 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Jan	6.3Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	819 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-2-1

43David de Gea(G)

65F. Parisi 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo 2Dodô

4M. Brescianini 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora

10A. Guðmundsson 19M. Solomon

20M. Kean

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Paleari(G)

23Saúl Coco 13G. Maripán 35L. Marianucci

33Rafael Obrador 66G. Gineitis 6E. İlkhan 22C. Casadei 20V. Lazaro

19C. Adams 17S. Kulenović

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+2.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Torino-1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-6
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.55

Torino · Away 1.09points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-5
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 1.82

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Torino
Napoli	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H	W 1–0 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Bologna	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
AC Milan	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 2–3 H
Lazio	D 2–2 A	D 3–3 A
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Parma	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Udinese	W 5–1 H	L 1–2 H
Verona	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 A
Sassuolo	L 1–3 A	W 1–0 A
Atalanta	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Genoa	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
Lecce	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Inter	L 0–3 A	L 0–5 A
AS Roma	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Como	L 1–2 H	L 0–6 AL 1–5 H
Points	16 of 66 · 0.73 per game	25 of 66 · 1.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Fiorentina wins4 draws2 Torino wins

Goals per game0.67 – 0.89 Over 2.522% Both scored33% Clean sheets44% · 44%

31 Aug 2025Torino0–0Fiorentina
19 Jan 2025Fiorentina1–1Torino
3 Nov 2024Torino0–1Fiorentina
2 Mar 2024Torino0–0Fiorentina
29 Dec 2023Fiorentina1–0Torino
21 May 2023Torino1–1Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.09	0.96
Conceded per game	1.57	1.74
Match goals	2.65	2.70	2.60
Over 1.5	78%	65%
Over 2.5	61%	57%	48%
Over 3.5	26%	26%
Both teams scored	70%	39%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	39%
Failed to score	26%	35%
Games	23	23

	Fiorentina	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.70
Match goals	3.00	2.70	2.60
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.61	3.76
Corners conceded	4.52	4.38
Match total	9.13	8.14	8.74
Over 8.5	61% 14/23	38% 8/21
Over 9.5	57% 13/23	38% 8/21
Over 10.5	26% 6/23	33% 7/21
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.78
Opponent cards	2.30	1.39
Match total	4.60	3.17	3.96
Over 3.5	70% 16/23	48% 11/23
Over 4.5	57% 13/23	17% 4/23

	Fiorentina	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	3.50
Corners conceded	4.70	3.90
Match total	9.80	7.40	8.74
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.70
Opponent cards	2.50	1.20
Match total	4.60	2.90	3.96
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.72league 3.81

Red cards0.19league 0.17

Cards 5+55%league 36%

Fouls24.7league 25.6

Penalties0.14league 0.32

Home wins39%league 38%

Fiorentina5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L14 Dec 25H · Verona1–21
L5 Oct 25H · AS Roma1–23
L9 Mar 25A · Napoli1–22
D1 Sep 24H · Monza2–22
D29 Jan 23A · Lazio1–13

Torino8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L21 Sep 25H · Atalanta0–30
D15 Sep 24H · Lecce0–01
W16 Mar 24A · Udinese2–02
W26 Jan 24A · Cagliari2–14
L27 Nov 23A · Bologna0–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.