Fiorentina vs Verona – 14 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 14 · 14:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 20th · 6 pts · 14 played LDDLL

1–2Full time

Verona 19th · 9 pts · 14 played LDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 22). Fiorentina had 8 days of rest, Verona 7.8 and had to travel 186 km.

Away travel186 kmRest days8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Fiorentina57%

Draw25%

Verona18%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.85

Fiorentina59%

Draw23%

Verona18%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.95

Fiorentina57%

Draw25%

Verona18%

Expected goals 1.70 – 0.84

Fiorentina50%

Draw27%

Verona23%

Expected goals 1.53 – 0.95

Fiorentina59%

Draw23%

Verona18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.96

Over 2.5 47% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 59

Team strength

Fiorentina

Verona

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

42 AttackIn forecast 15

34 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Verona

0.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.79

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

64% Scored inContext 57%

14% Clean sheetsContext 21%

11.29 ShotsContext 11.93

2.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

23% On target shareContext 40%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.36

60% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 7%

2.64 OffsidesContext 2.42

13.21 Shots allowedContext 12.43

5.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.62

3.14 BlocksContext 4.07

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.08

66% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 39%

390 PassesContext 310

320 Accurate passesContext 226

82% Pass accuracyContext 73%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.66

13.29 FoulsContext 16.86

16.79 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

2.36 Yellow cardsContext 2.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.58 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

60% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.60 ShotsContext 11.30

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

29% On target shareContext 42%

9.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

70% Box shareContext 67%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.63

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

3.89 BlocksContext 4.20

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

66% Save rateContext 64%

51% PossessionIn forecast 41%

415 PassesContext 315

344 Accurate passesContext 226

83% Pass accuracyContext 72%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.69

12.40 FoulsContext 16.70

16.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km721 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel186 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Dec	7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	186 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	721 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	13.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

3-5-2

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 15P. Comuzzo 5M. Pongračić

65F. Parisi 7S. Sohm 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora 2Dodô

20M. Kean 10A. Guðmundsson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

37A. Bella-Kotchap 15V. Nelsson 5Unai Núñez

3M. Frese 24A. Bernede 73Al Musrati 36C. Niasse 7R. Belghali

25D. Mosquera 17Giovane

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Verona-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.83

Verona · Away 0.43points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-4
Scored: 0.43
Conceded: 1.71

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Verona
Sassuolo	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Atalanta	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Genoa	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Lecce	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 A
Inter	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 H
AS Roma	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Como	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Cagliari	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Points	4 of 30 · 0.40 per game	7 of 30 · 0.70 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Fiorentina wins2 draws2 Verona wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.75 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

23 Feb 2025Verona1–0Fiorentina
10 Nov 2024Fiorentina3–1Verona
5 May 2024Verona2–1Fiorentina
17 Dec 2023Fiorentina1–0Verona
27 Feb 2023Verona0–3Fiorentina
18 Sep 2022Fiorentina2–0Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.79	0.79
Conceded per game	1.71	1.50
Match goals	2.50	2.29	2.56
Over 1.5	79%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	64%	57%	47%
Clean sheets	14%	21%
Failed to score	36%	43%
Games	14	14

	Fiorentina	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.90
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	2.60	2.40	2.56
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	47%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.36	3.79
Corners conceded	4.50	4.14
Match total	8.86	7.93	8.86
Over 8.5	57% 8/14	43% 6/14
Over 9.5	50% 7/14	29% 4/14
Over 10.5	21% 3/14	14% 2/14
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.57
Opponent cards	2.07	1.93
Match total	4.50	4.50	4.00
Over 3.5	71% 10/14	71% 10/14
Over 4.5	57% 8/14	57% 8/14

	Fiorentina	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.70
Corners conceded	4.40	4.10
Match total	9.20	7.80	8.86
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.90
Opponent cards	2.40	1.90
Match total	5.40	4.80	4.00
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 59 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.73league 3.86

Red cards0.20league 0.16

Cards 5+56%league 37%

Fouls24.4league 25.9

Penalties0.14league 0.32

Home wins42%league 40%

Fiorentina4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L5 Oct 25H · AS Roma1–23
L9 Mar 25A · Napoli1–22
D1 Sep 24H · Monza2–22
D29 Jan 23A · Lazio1–13

Verona3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L23 Nov 24H · Inter0–52
D21 May 22A · Lazio3–36
W13 Feb 22H · Udinese4–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.