FK Crvena Zvezda vs Celtic – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:00 Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd

FK Crvena Zvezda

1–1Full time

Celtic

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celtic were slight favourites.

Celtic were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 40). Celtic usually keep the ball (71% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FK Crvena Zvezda had ? days of rest, Celtic ? and had to travel 2,124 km.

Away travel2,124 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

FK Crvena Zvezda31%

Draw26%

Celtic44%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.60

FK Crvena Zvezda32%

Draw27%

Celtic41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

FK Crvena Zvezda31%

Draw26%

Celtic44%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.60

FK Crvena Zvezda24%

Draw24%

Celtic51%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.80

FK Crvena Zvezda32%

Draw27%

Celtic41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Beograd)

No weather data yet

Referee · RomaniaRadu Marian Petrescu

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 4

Team strength

FK Crvena Zvezda

Celtic

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

42 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

40 AttackIn forecast 74

39 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FK Crvena Zvezda

Celtic

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

1.60 xGVia Att/Def —

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

15.43 ShotsContext 15.50

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

33% On target shareContext 38%

10.71 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

66% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.17 OffsidesContext 3.33

12.86 Shots allowedContext 7.80

4.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.88

3.29 BlocksContext 3.00

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

69% Save rateContext 74%

49% PossessionIn forecast 72%

376 PassesContext 700

304 Accurate passesContext 620

81% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.05 Team ratingContext 7.19

11.71 FoulsContext 11.20

15.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FK Crvena Zvezda

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celtic

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,124 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Celtic
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,124 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Matheus(G)

23N. Tiknizyan 13M. Veljković 30F. Tebo Uchenna 66Y. Seol

20Tomás Händel 21T. Elšnik

4M. Ivanić 17Bruno Duarte 49N. Radonjić

89M. Arnautović

Celtic Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1K. Schmeichel(G)

63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 20C. Carter-Vickers 51C. Donovan

41R. Hatate 42C. McGregor 8E. Nygren

38D. Maeda 13H. Yang

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FK Crvena Zvezda Absences are shown before kick-off

Celtic Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Celtic+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FK Crvena Zvezda · Home No home games yet this season.

Celtic · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.92
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.92
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	6.43	8.00
Corners conceded	4.57	4.11
Match total	11.00	12.11	9.50
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	78% 7/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.30
Opponent cards	1.50	2.20
Match total	3.60	3.50	4.50
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Radu Marian Petrescu Romania · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 4.50

Red cards0.25league 0.00

Cards 5+50%league 50%

Fouls28.7league 32.0

Penalties0.00league 0.00

Home wins25%league 50%

FK Crvena Zvezda

No previous matches with this referee.

Celtic

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.