UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 20:00 Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd
FK Crvena Zvezda 27th · 4 pts · 4 played
1–0Full time
FCSB 30th · 3 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FK Crvena Zvezda were slight favourites.

FK Crvena Zvezda were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 33). Absences weigh more on FCSB. FK Crvena Zvezda had 21.1 days of rest, FCSB 21.1 and had to travel 442 km.

Away travel442 kmRest days21.1 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
FK Crvena Zvezda50%
Draw26%
FCSB24%
Expected goals 1.66 – 1.09
FK Crvena Zvezda49%
Draw26%
FCSB25%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10
FK Crvena Zvezda49%
Draw26%
FCSB25%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.09
FK Crvena Zvezda43%
Draw27%
FCSB31%
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.22
FK Crvena Zvezda50%
Draw26%
FCSB25%
Expected goals 1.66 – 1.10
Over 2.5 52% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Beograd)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
  • Cards per match 3.7
  • Penalties per match 0.35
  • Matches 97

Team strength

FK Crvena ZvezdaFCSB
41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
40 AttackIn forecast 36
39 DefenceIn forecast 33
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—
Defense risk—

FCSB

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FK Crvena ZvezdaFCSB
0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75
1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 0.75
1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81
-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
75% Scored inContext 75%
25% Clean sheetsContext 25%
10.75 ShotsContext 11.75
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
28% On target shareContext 47%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
68% Box shareContext 63%
7% ConversionContext 6%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.25
11.75 Shots allowedContext 19.25
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.75
2.25 BlocksContext 5.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
71% Save rateContext 77%
47% PossessionIn forecast 39%
417 PassesContext 315
338 Accurate passesContext 243
81% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.86
10.50 FoulsContext 13.75
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.25
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 0.75
1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81
+0.46 Goals minus xGContext +0.75
90% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.14 ShotsContext 11.00
3.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
29% On target shareContext 49%
9.43 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
70% Box shareContext 63%
9% ConversionContext 12%
2.67 OffsidesContext 1.20
11.86 Shots allowedContext 18.67
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
2.43 BlocksContext 6.60
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.17
69% Save rateContext 74%
48% PossessionIn forecast 45%
395 PassesContext 315
317 Accurate passesContext 243
80% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.86
11.29 FoulsContext 12.50
13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.30
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FCSB
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel442 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FK Crvena Zvezda FCSB
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km442 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one13.914

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan 30F. Tebo Uchenna 13M. Veljković 66Y. Seol
21T. Elšnik 33R. Krunić
4M. Ivanić 17Bruno Duarte 20Tomás Händel
89M. Arnautović
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
FCSB Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
38L. Zima(G)
33R. Radunović 4D. Graovac 30S. Ngezana 2V. Crețu
8A. Șut 16M. Lixandru
93M. Thiam 27D. Olaru 11D. Miculescu
9G. Bîrligea
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FK Crvena Zvezda Absences are shown before kick-off
FCSB Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FK Crvena Zvezda+1.0 pp
  • Draw-0.4 pp
  • FCSB-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

FK Crvena Zvezda · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.50
FCSB · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

FK Crvena ZvezdaFCSBForecast
Scored per game 0.750.75
Conceded per game 1.251.75
Match goals 2.002.50 2.75
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 25%50% 52%
Over 3.5 0%25%
Both teams scored 50%50% 54%
Clean sheets 25%25%
Failed to score 25%25%
Games44
FK Crvena ZvezdaFCSBForecast
Scored per game 0.750.75
Conceded per game 1.251.75
Match goals 2.002.50 2.75
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 25%50% 52%
Over 3.5 0%25%
Both teams scored 50%50% 54%
Clean sheets 25%25%
Failed to score 25%25%
Games44

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FK Crvena ZvezdaFCSBLeague
Corners
Corners won4.504.50
Corners conceded3.507.00
Match total8.0011.509.08
Over 8.525% 1/475% 3/4
Over 9.525% 1/475% 3/4
Over 10.525% 1/475% 3/4
Cards
Cards2.003.50
Opponent cards1.752.75
Match total3.756.254.26
Over 3.575% 3/4100% 4/4
Over 4.550% 2/475% 3/4
FK Crvena ZvezdaFCSBLeague
Corners
Corners won5.434.17
Corners conceded3.575.83
Match total9.0010.009.08
Over 8.529% 2/750% 3/6
Over 9.529% 2/750% 3/6
Over 10.529% 2/750% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.202.50
Opponent cards1.603.10
Match total3.805.604.26
Over 3.560% 6/10100% 10/10
Over 4.550% 5/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 97 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.46league 4.06
Red cards0.26league 0.16
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls24.1league 24.7
Penalties0.35league 0.40
Home wins39%league 49%
FK Crvena Zvezda

No previous matches with this referee.

FCSB

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FK Crvena Zvezda4 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 1 76-90
FCSB4 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1 3 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 3 76-90
FCSB9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2 4 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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