Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Fortuna Sittard had 6.1 days of rest, Groningen 6.1 and had to travel 251 km.
Away travel251 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fortuna Sittard39%
Draw26%
Groningen35%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Draw27%
Groningen34%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Draw27%
Groningen34%
Fortuna Sittard32%
Draw26%
Groningen42%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Draw27%
Groningen34%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 24
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
Groningen
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
19
AttackIn forecast
41
19
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardGroningen
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.56
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
78%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.89
ShotsContext
13.11
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
34%
On target shareContext
42%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
64%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.22
Shots allowedContext
11.67
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.56
BlocksContext
2.88
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
73%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
391
PassesContext
396
304
Accurate passesContext
313
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.33
FoulsContext
12.11
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.89
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
13.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
33%
On target shareContext
41%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
65%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.20
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.70
BlocksContext
2.78
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
390
PassesContext
393
303
Accurate passesContext
309
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.80
FoulsContext
11.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel251 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 251 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
17J. Lonwijk
80R. Fosso
23P. Brittijn
7K. Peterson
9K. Sierhuis
18D. Limnios
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Groningen+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Groningen · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Telstar | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws1 Groningen wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 16 Mar 2025Groningen1–0Fortuna Sittard
- 26 Oct 2024Fortuna Sittard1–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.34 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 3.55 | 3.89 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.90 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.70 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.49
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+29%league 35%
Fouls21.5league 22.5
Penalties0.21league 0.24
Home wins33%league 48%
Fortuna Sittard6 with this referee
Record0-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D8 Aug 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
- L3 May 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–42
- L10 Jan 25H · GO Ahead Eagles0–32
- D20 Oct 24A · Willem II0–01
- L21 Oct 23A · PSV Eindhoven1–31
Groningen2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Aug 25H · Heracles4–02
- L29 Sep 24H · GO Ahead Eagles0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Groningen9 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
