Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fortuna Sittard39.0%fair odds 2.57
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Groningen34.7%fair odds 2.88
Expected goals1.47 – 1.37total 2.84
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fortuna Sittard ↓ · Groningen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fortuna Sittard goals, columns Groningen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.07
- 2–18.6%11.58
- 1–28.1%12.38
- 1–08.0%12.57
- 0–17.4%13.50
- 0–06.5%15.44
- 2–06.3%15.89
- 2–25.9%16.89
- 0–25.5%18.15
- 3–14.2%23.70
Winning margin
7.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 13.84
11.7%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 8.53
20.0%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 4.99
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
18.7%
Groningen by 1
fair 5.35
10.3%
Groningen by 2
fair 9.74
5.8%
Groningen by 3+
fair 17.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Fortuna Sittard goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Groningen goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 39.0% | 38.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Groningen win | 34.7% | 34.4% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 52.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 56.5% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 1.47 | 1.43 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.37 | 1.33 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fortuna Sittard win39.0%2.57
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Groningen win34.7%2.88
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw65.3%1.53
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or Groningen73.7%1.36
- Double chance Groningen or draw61.0%1.64
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard52.9%1.89
- Draw no bet Groningen47.1%2.12
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.0%1.85
- Over 3.531.7%3.16
- Over 4.515.8%6.32
- Under 1.521.8%4.58
- Under 2.546.0%2.17
- Under 3.568.3%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.72
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes20.1%4.98
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- Groningen win and yes18.1%5.52
Team goals
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.576.9%1.30
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.543.1%2.32
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.518.3%5.47
- Groningen over 0.574.6%1.34
- Groningen over 1.539.8%2.51
- Groningen over 2.516.0%6.26
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet25.4%3.94
- Groningen clean sheet23.1%4.33
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil18.9%5.30
- Groningen win to nil16.6%6.02
Handicap
- Fortuna Sittard −1.519.0%5.28
- Fortuna Sittard −2.57.2%13.84
- Groningen +1.581.0%1.23
- Groningen +2.592.8%1.08
- Groningen −1.516.0%6.24
- Fortuna Sittard +1.584.0%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored82
Favourite won53.7%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.550
Over 2.5 called right69.5%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.0% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 44.5% | 37.0% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.8% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 63.6% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 75.1% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 60 of 82 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5479 | 0.5112 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.1% | 46.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 60 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 82 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.