Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen – 8 Nov 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Nov 8 · 19:00 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

Fortuna Sittard 12th · 13 pts · 11 played LWLLL

2–0Full time

Heerenveen 10th · 14 pts · 11 played DWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Fortuna Sittard had 8 days of rest, Heerenveen 7.1 and had to travel 218 km.

Away travel218 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fortuna Sittard39%

Draw27%

Heerenveen35%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.36

Fortuna Sittard38%

Draw27%

Heerenveen34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Fortuna Sittard38%

Draw27%

Heerenveen35%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.35

Fortuna Sittard31%

Draw26%

Heerenveen42%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.52

Fortuna Sittard39%

Draw27%

Heerenveen34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.30

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sittard)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 40

Team strength

Fortuna Sittard

Heerenveen

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

19 AttackIn forecast 36

19 DefenceIn forecast 40

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fortuna Sittard

Heerenveen

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.73

1.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

82% Scored inContext 91%

18% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.36 ShotsContext 14.91

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 34%

8.27 Shots in the boxContext 9.90

65% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.09 Shots allowedContext 10.27

5.45 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.27

3.73 BlocksContext 3.00

3.82 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.45

70% Save rateContext 57%

48% PossessionIn forecast 52%

391 PassesContext 424

304 Accurate passesContext 339

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.84

13.27 FoulsContext 11.00

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.27

2.36 Yellow cardsContext 1.64

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 2.01

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.00 ShotsContext 14.60

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

38% On target shareContext 34%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

66% Box shareContext 65%

14% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.80 Shots allowedContext 10.80

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.90 BlocksContext 3.00

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

70% Save rateContext 57%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

380 PassesContext 420

291 Accurate passesContext 333

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.60 FoulsContext 11.30

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fortuna Sittard

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km113 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heerenveen

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel218 km190 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fortuna Sittard	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Oct	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	218 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	113 km	190 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	14.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31M. Branderhorst(G)

8J. Dahlhaus 44Iván Márquez 4S. Adewoye 12Ivo Pinto

17J. Lonwijk 80R. Fosso 23P. Brittijn

18D. Limnios 11M. Aïko 52M. Ihattaren

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

8L. Brouwers 6J. van Overeem

7M. Rivera 9D. Vente 20J. Trenskow

27V. Sejk

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fortuna Sittard Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heerenveen Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fortuna Sittard+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Heerenveen+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Fortuna Sittard · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.20

Heerenveen · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	Heerenveen
Groningen	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Excelsior	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
FC Volendam	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Twente	L 2–3 A	L 1–2 H
Utrecht	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 A
Feyenoord	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Telstar	W 3–1 A	W 3–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	W 3–2 H
NAC Breda	L 1–2 A	D 3–3 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 H
Points	13 of 30 · 1.30 per game	13 of 30 · 1.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Fortuna Sittard wins2 draws1 Heerenveen wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

1 Feb 2025Heerenveen2–2Fortuna Sittard
2 Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard3–0Heerenveen
3 Feb 2024Fortuna Sittard3–3Heerenveen
25 Nov 2023Heerenveen3–0Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fortuna Sittard	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	1.73
Conceded per game	1.82	1.73
Match goals	3.27	3.45	2.80
Over 1.5	73%	91%
Over 2.5	64%	73%	53%
Over 3.5	45%	45%
Both teams scored	64%	91%	57%
Clean sheets	18%	0%
Failed to score	18%	9%
Games	11	11

	Fortuna Sittard	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.80
Conceded per game	1.80	1.80
Match goals	3.20	3.60	2.80
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	90%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fortuna Sittard	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	5.73
Corners conceded	5.80	4.73
Match total	10.10	10.46	9.93
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	82% 9/11
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	55% 6/11
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	45% 5/11
Cards
Cards	2.36	1.82
Opponent cards	1.18	1.91
Match total	3.54	3.73	3.61
Over 3.5	45% 5/11	55% 6/11
Over 4.5	36% 4/11	27% 3/11

	Fortuna Sittard	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	5.40
Corners conceded	5.89	5.00
Match total	9.78	10.40	9.93
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.90
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.40	3.90	3.61
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.20league 3.36

Red cards0.13league 0.23

Cards 5+30%league 33%

Fouls19.6league 22.1

Penalties0.28league 0.29

Home wins48%league 48%

Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L31 Aug 24H · NEC Nijmegen0–31
D24 Jan 24A · Almere City FC0–01
L25 Nov 23A · Heerenveen0–32

Heerenveen6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 0

L16 Aug 25A · Groningen1–22
W18 May 25H · Feyenoord2–00
D9 Feb 25H · Twente3–31
L23 Nov 24A · Feyenoord0–32
W25 Nov 23H · Fortuna Sittard3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.