Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Apr 12 · 11:15 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Fortuna Sittard 12th · 35 pts · 29 played
First leg1–2 1–1Full time
NAC Breda 17th · 24 pts · 29 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Fortuna Sittard45.5%fair odds 2.20
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
NAC Breda28.6%fair odds 3.50
Expected goals1.60 – 1.22total 2.82
Likeliest score1–112.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Fortuna Sittard

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

NAC Breda

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Fortuna Sittard ↓ · NAC Breda →0123456+
06.66.74.51.80.60.10.0
18.912.37.12.90.90.20.1
27.69.35.72.30.70.20.0
34.14.93.01.20.40.10.0
41.62.01.20.50.10.00.0
50.50.60.40.20.00.00.0
6+0.20.20.10.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fortuna Sittard goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.3%8.15
  • 2–19.3%10.75
  • 1–08.9%11.20
  • 2–07.6%13.13
  • 1–27.1%14.06
  • 0–16.7%14.97
  • 0–06.6%15.16
  • 2–25.7%17.62
  • 3–14.9%20.21
  • 0–24.5%22.45

Winning margin

9.8% Fortuna Sittard by 3+ fair 10.25
13.9% Fortuna Sittard by 2 fair 7.17
21.8% Fortuna Sittard by 1 fair 4.59
25.9% Draw fair 3.86
16.5% NAC Breda by 1 fair 6.06
8.2% NAC Breda by 2 fair 12.27
3.9% NAC Breda by 3+ fair 25.49

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+

Fortuna Sittard goals

20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+

NAC Breda goals

30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Fortuna Sittard win 45.5% 45.7% -0.2 pp
Draw 25.9% 26.2% -0.2 pp
NAC Breda win 28.6% 28.1% +0.4 pp
Over 2.5 53.5% 52.3% +1.2 pp
Both teams score 56.8% 55.8% +1.0 pp
Expected goals Fortuna Sittard 1.60 1.58 +0.02
Expected goals NAC Breda 1.22 1.19 +0.03

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Fortuna Sittard win45.5%2.20
  • Draw25.9%3.86
  • NAC Breda win28.6%3.50
  • Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw71.4%1.40
  • Double chance Fortuna Sittard or NAC Breda74.1%1.35
  • Double chance NAC Breda or draw54.5%1.83
  • Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard61.4%1.63
  • Draw no bet NAC Breda38.6%2.59

Goals

  • Over 0.593.4%1.07
  • Over 1.577.8%1.29
  • Over 2.553.5%1.87
  • Over 3.531.2%3.21
  • Over 4.515.5%6.45
  • Under 1.522.2%4.50
  • Under 2.546.5%2.15
  • Under 3.568.8%1.45

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.8%1.76
  • No43.2%2.32
  • Yes and over 2.544.6%2.24
  • Fortuna Sittard win and yes22.6%4.43
  • Draw and yes19.3%5.17
  • NAC Breda win and yes14.9%6.70

Team goals

  • Fortuna Sittard over 0.579.7%1.25
  • Fortuna Sittard over 1.547.4%2.11
  • Fortuna Sittard over 2.521.6%4.64
  • NAC Breda over 0.570.5%1.42
  • NAC Breda over 1.534.5%2.90
  • NAC Breda over 2.512.5%8.00
  • Fortuna Sittard clean sheet29.5%3.39
  • NAC Breda clean sheet20.3%4.93
  • Fortuna Sittard win to nil22.9%4.37
  • NAC Breda win to nil13.7%7.32

Handicap

  • Fortuna Sittard −1.523.7%4.22
  • Fortuna Sittard −2.59.8%10.25
  • NAC Breda +1.576.3%1.31
  • NAC Breda +2.590.2%1.11
  • NAC Breda −1.512.1%8.28
  • Fortuna Sittard +1.587.9%1.14

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored266 Favourite won51.9% Avg chance given to result41.2% 1X2 Brier0.586 Over 2.5 called right62.0% BTTS called right61.7%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4138.0%34.1%
40–50%9744.9%47.4%
50–60%6555.2%46.2%
60–70%3564.5%68.6%
70–80%2174.3%85.7%
80%+784.7%85.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 217 of 266 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.58720.5797
Avg chance given to result41.1%42.4%
Favourite won51.2%53.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 217 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 266 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.