Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda – 12 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Apr 12 · 11:15 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

Fortuna Sittard 12th · 35 pts · 29 played WLWLL

First leg1–2 1–1Full time

NAC Breda 17th · 24 pts · 29 played LDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fortuna Sittard were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Fortuna Sittard. Fortuna Sittard had 7.7 days of rest, NAC Breda 6.8 and had to travel 100 km.

Away travel100 kmRest days7.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fortuna Sittard45%

Draw26%

NAC Breda29%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.22

Fortuna Sittard50%

Draw26%

NAC Breda25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Fortuna Sittard48%

Draw26%

NAC Breda26%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.14

Fortuna Sittard38%

Draw27%

NAC Breda35%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.37

Fortuna Sittard46%

Draw26%

NAC Breda28%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.19

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sittard)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 51

Team strength

Fortuna Sittard

NAC Breda

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 13

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

19 AttackIn forecast 19

19 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fortuna Sittard

NAC Breda

1.48 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

86% Scored inContext 59%

10% Clean sheetsContext 17%

12.66 ShotsContext 13.21

4.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

36% On target shareContext 31%

8.17 Shots in the boxContext 8.14

64% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.95

14.28 Shots allowedContext 12.17

5.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.93 BlocksContext 3.12

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.52

69% Save rateContext 69%

45% PossessionIn forecast 49%

357 PassesContext 391

273 Accurate passesContext 307

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.28 FoulsContext 10.93

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 12.76

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.66

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

90% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.00 ShotsContext 13.90

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

40% On target shareContext 31%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

65% Box shareContext 55%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.88

14.30 Shots allowedContext 11.80

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.70 BlocksContext 4.00

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

64% Save rateContext 68%

43% PossessionIn forecast 49%

349 PassesContext 374

262 Accurate passesContext 285

75% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.66

10.60 FoulsContext 10.30

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fortuna Sittard

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km395 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NAC Breda

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel100 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fortuna Sittard	NAC Breda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr	6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	100 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	395 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.3	13.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Koopmans(G)

8J. Dahlhaus 28J. Hubner 4S. Adewoye 21N. Kasanwirjo

23P. Brittijn 6S. van Ottele

7K. Peterson 70L. Duijvestijn 18D. Limnios

9K. Sierhuis

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 8C. Leemans 12L. Greiml 3D. Odoi

14K. Sowah 20F. Oldrup Jensen

11R. Paula 90L. Holtby 32J. Talvitie

24A. Ayew

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fortuna Sittard Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fortuna Sittard-2.6 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
NAC Breda+2.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Fortuna Sittard · Home 1.50points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-3-5
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.71

NAC Breda · Away 0.50points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-9
Scored: 0.79
Conceded: 2.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–2 AW 4–3 H	L 0–1 H
Twente	L 1–2 HL 2–3 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
FC Volendam	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Telstar	L 1–4 HW 3–1 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 AW 3–2 H	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Ajax	L 1–4 AL 1–3 H	L 1–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Heracles	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Groningen	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–5 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–6 AW 1–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H
Heerenveen	W 2–0 H	D 3–3 A
Utrecht	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Feyenoord	L 0–2 A	D 3–3 HL 0–2 A
Points	35 of 84 · 1.25 per game	21 of 84 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws2 NAC Breda wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

17 Aug 2025NAC Breda2–1Fortuna Sittard
10 May 2025Fortuna Sittard1–0NAC Breda
14 Sep 2024NAC Breda1–0Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fortuna Sittard	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.48	1.00
Conceded per game	1.86	1.72
Match goals	3.34	2.72	2.82
Over 1.5	86%	66%
Over 2.5	69%	55%	53%
Over 3.5	41%	28%
Both teams scored	76%	48%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	17%
Failed to score	14%	41%
Games	29	29

	Fortuna Sittard	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	2.10	2.00
Match goals	3.60	3.00	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	90%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	90%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fortuna Sittard	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	4.74	5.41
Corners conceded	6.59	4.17
Match total	11.33	9.58	10.29
Over 8.5	78% 21/27	62% 18/29
Over 9.5	63% 17/27	48% 14/29
Over 10.5	56% 15/27	45% 13/29
Cards
Cards	2.14	1.86
Opponent cards	1.31	2.00
Match total	3.45	3.86	3.35
Over 3.5	38% 11/29	55% 16/29
Over 4.5	31% 9/29	41% 12/29

	Fortuna Sittard	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	5.90
Corners conceded	7.56	5.10
Match total	11.89	11.00	10.29
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	1.00	1.90
Match total	2.80	3.60	3.35
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.27league 3.18

Red cards0.16league 0.17

Cards 5+29%league 26%

Fouls19.6league 21.2

Penalties0.27league 0.23

Home wins47%league 45%

Fortuna Sittard5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 2

L17 Jan 26H · PSV Eindhoven1–21
W8 Nov 25H · Heerenveen2–02
L31 Aug 24H · NEC Nijmegen0–31
D24 Jan 24A · Almere City FC0–01
L25 Nov 23A · Heerenveen0–32

NAC Breda4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

D8 Mar 26H · Feyenoord3–32
D14 Dec 25H · Utrecht1–12
L31 Aug 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–11
W20 Oct 24A · PEC Zwolle2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.