Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 15). Fortuna Sittard had 13.7 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 6.9 and had to travel 94 km.
Away travel94 kmRest days13.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fortuna Sittard29%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen45%
Fortuna Sittard29%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen45%
Fortuna Sittard29%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen45%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen53%
Fortuna Sittard29%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen45%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.06
- Matches 17
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
19
AttackIn forecast
37
19
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardNEC Nijmegen
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
4.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
3.20
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
23.00
ShotsContext
19.33
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
10.33
26%
On target shareContext
53%
14.50
Shots in the boxContext
14.00
62%
Box shareContext
73%
7%
ConversionContext
21%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
9.67
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.00
BlocksContext
1.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
67%
Save rateContext
93%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
502
PassesContext
512
433
Accurate passesContext
430
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.45
12.50
FoulsContext
13.67
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
14.40
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
25%
On target shareContext
41%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
69%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.90
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
2.89
BlocksContext
3.40
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
68%
Save rateContext
88%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
388
PassesContext
435
316
Accurate passesContext
350
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.13
12.50
FoulsContext
11.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest13.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km201 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel94 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 94 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 201 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.2 | 13.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
80R. Fosso
23P. Brittijn
7K. Peterson
17J. Lonwijk
18D. Limnios
52M. Ihattaren
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24C. Verdonk
23K. Sano
2B. Pereira
11B. Önal
32Vito van Crooij
71D. Proper
21Róber
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
10T. Chery
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws3 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game0.67 – 3.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 19 Jan 2025NEC Nijmegen4–1Fortuna Sittard
- 31 Aug 2024Fortuna Sittard0–3NEC Nijmegen
- 15 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen4–1Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.33 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.33 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.67 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.34 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.60 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.33
Red cards0.06league 0.13
Cards 5+12%league 33%
Fouls22.4league 22.6
Penalties0.06league 0.13
Home wins47%league 53%
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D1 Feb 25A · Heerenveen2–23
- W26 Oct 24H · Groningen1–01
- L13 Jan 24H · Sparta Rotterdam0–23
NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 May 25H · NAC Breda3–00
- D29 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar3–33
- W9 Nov 24A · Waalwijk3–01
- L18 Aug 23A · Heracles1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen3 games · scored 12 · conceded 1
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 23 · conceded 7
2
2
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
6
2
46-60
6
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
