Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam – 7 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 7 · 20:00 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

Fortuna Sittard 12th · 25 pts · 21 played WDLWL

First leg1–1 2–2Full time

Sparta Rotterdam 5th · 35 pts · 21 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sparta Rotterdam. Fortuna Sittard had 6.3 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 7 and had to travel 141 km.

Away travel141 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fortuna Sittard33%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam40%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.39

Fortuna Sittard37%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.32

Fortuna Sittard34%

Draw28%

Sparta Rotterdam38%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.35

Fortuna Sittard26%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam47%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.56

Fortuna Sittard33%

Draw28%

Sparta Rotterdam39%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.37

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sittard)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 34

Team strength

Fortuna Sittard

Sparta Rotterdam

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

19 AttackIn forecast 32

19 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fortuna Sittard

Sparta Rotterdam

1.48 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.62

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

86% Scored inContext 76%

14% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.81 ShotsContext 12.43

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

36% On target shareContext 37%

7.95 Shots in the boxContext 8.29

61% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.58

14.38 Shots allowedContext 16.38

5.62 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40

4.05 BlocksContext 4.38

4.05 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60

72% Save rateContext 72%

46% PossessionIn forecast 46%

364 PassesContext 381

280 Accurate passesContext 303

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.95

13.24 FoulsContext 8.52

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 10.57

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.76

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.30 ShotsContext 13.10

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

38% On target shareContext 39%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

56% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.70 Shots allowedContext 14.80

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.44 BlocksContext 4.00

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

74% Save rateContext 78%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

335 PassesContext 417

254 Accurate passesContext 336

76% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.05

13.20 FoulsContext 9.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fortuna Sittard

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km824 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel141 km96 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fortuna Sittard	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	141 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	824 km	96 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	10

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Koopmans(G)

28J. Hubner 44Iván Márquez 21N. Kasanwirjo 12Ivo Pinto

23P. Brittijn 20É. Michut

7K. Peterson 70L. Duijvestijn 52M. Ihattaren

9K. Sierhuis

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

8P. Clement 6J. Kitolano

11S. Mito 10A. Santos 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fortuna Sittard Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fortuna Sittard-1.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Fortuna Sittard · Home 1.70points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-3
Scored: 1.70
Conceded: 1.50

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.80points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 6-0-4
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
Groningen	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 HW 2–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–5 A	L 1–6 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 3–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 4–3 H	L 0–1 H
PEC Zwolle	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Ajax	L 1–3 H	D 3–3 H
Heerenveen	W 2–0 H	L 0–3 H
Excelsior	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
FC Volendam	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Twente	L 2–3 A	L 1–5 H
Utrecht	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Feyenoord	L 0–2 A	W 4–3 AL 0–4 H
Telstar	W 3–1 A	W 1–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	L 1–3 A
NAC Breda	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Points	24 of 60 · 1.20 per game	34 of 60 · 1.70 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Fortuna Sittard wins2 draws2 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.75 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

22 Nov 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–1Fortuna Sittard
29 Mar 2025Fortuna Sittard0–3Sparta Rotterdam
28 Sep 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–1Fortuna Sittard
13 Jan 2024Fortuna Sittard0–2Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fortuna Sittard	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.48	1.29
Conceded per game	1.71	1.62
Match goals	3.19	2.90	2.64
Over 1.5	81%	67%
Over 2.5	62%	48%	49%
Over 3.5	38%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	33%	54%
Clean sheets	14%	43%
Failed to score	14%	24%
Games	21	21

	Fortuna Sittard	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	3.10	2.40	2.64
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	30%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fortuna Sittard	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.85	4.47
Corners conceded	6.50	7.05
Match total	11.35	11.52	10.21
Over 8.5	85% 17/20	95% 18/19
Over 9.5	65% 13/20	74% 14/19
Over 10.5	55% 11/20	63% 12/19
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.86
Opponent cards	1.57	1.95
Match total	3.90	3.81	3.59
Over 3.5	48% 10/21	62% 13/21
Over 4.5	43% 9/21	38% 8/21

	Fortuna Sittard	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	5.50
Corners conceded	7.20	6.88
Match total	12.60	12.38	10.21
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	100% 8/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	4.30	4.00	3.59
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.26league 3.38

Red cards0.29league 0.20

Cards 5+24%league 31%

Fouls22.8league 21.7

Penalties0.32league 0.26

Home wins44%league 45%

Fortuna Sittard6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D11 Jan 26A · GO Ahead Eagles2–21
L19 Oct 25A · Excelsior0–13
L12 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–22
W22 Dec 24A · Utrecht5–23
W11 Aug 24A · GO Ahead Eagles2–01

Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W2 Feb 25H · Groningen1–00
D25 Aug 24H · Feyenoord1–13
D27 Jan 24A · Waalwijk1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.