Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 35 pts · 27 played
LWWLW
First leg2–3
1–2Full time
Twente
5th · 44 pts · 27 played
DWWWL
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Fortuna Sittard. Fortuna Sittard had 7 days of rest, Twente 6.2 and had to travel 153 km.
Away travel153 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fortuna Sittard29%
Draw24%
Twente47%
Fortuna Sittard29%
Draw27%
Twente44%
Fortuna Sittard30%
Draw24%
Twente46%
Fortuna Sittard22%
Draw22%
Twente56%
Fortuna Sittard30%
Draw24%
Twente46%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 27
Team strength
Fortuna SittardTwente
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
19
AttackIn forecast
41
19
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardTwente
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
89%
Scored inContext
78%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.89
ShotsContext
17.63
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.41
63%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.95
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.44
Shots allowedContext
10.04
5.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
4.00
BlocksContext
3.20
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
69%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
359
PassesContext
460
276
Accurate passesContext
373
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.52
FoulsContext
10.26
11.41
Fouls sufferedContext
9.56
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
100%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.80
ShotsContext
17.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
37%
On target shareContext
39%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
63%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
16.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.20
BlocksContext
3.38
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
66%
Save rateContext
74%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
343
PassesContext
461
260
Accurate passesContext
372
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.70
FoulsContext
8.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km351 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel153 km100 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 153 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 351 km | 100 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
21N. Kasanwirjo
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
20É. Michut
23P. Brittijn
77L. Tunjić
70L. Duijvestijn
18D. Limnios
19P. Gladon
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
42D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
14K. Hlynsson
27S. Ørjasæter
10S. Lammers
11D. Rots
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Twente+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.69
Twente · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-2
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Telstar | L 1–4 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 AW 3–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Ajax | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 5–1 A |
| Heracles | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A | L 0–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 4–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 H | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 35 of 78 · 1.35 per game | 41 of 78 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins1 draws3 Twente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 26 Sep 2025Twente3–2Fortuna Sittard
- 5 Apr 2025Twente1–1Fortuna Sittard
- 23 Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard1–2Twente
- 8 Oct 2023Fortuna Sittard0–3Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 3.41 | 2.74 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 41% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 59% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.70 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.48 | 3.96 | |
| Match total | 11.16 | 8.96 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 19/25 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 15/25 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 13/25 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.41 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.52 | 3.52 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 11/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 8.89 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.80 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.25
Red cards0.22league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 28%
Fouls21.9league 21.4
Penalties0.26league 0.24
Home wins48%league 45%
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Jan 26A · Groningen2–12
- W4 Oct 25H · FC Volendam1–01
- L29 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam0–33
Twente3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L30 Aug 25A · Excelsior0–12
- W2 Nov 24A · Willem II1–01
- W8 Dec 23H · Excelsior4–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard27 games · scored 42 · conceded 50
8
9
0-15
4
10
16-30
10
8
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
11
76-90
Twente27 games · scored 45 · conceded 29
3
3
0-15
8
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
12
7
46-60
7
6
61-75
10
7
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
2
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
