Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 18). Fortuna Sittard had 3 days of rest, Utrecht 6.2 and had to travel 132 km.
Away travel132 kmRest days3 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Fortuna Sittard27%
Draw26%
Utrecht47%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Draw26%
Utrecht47%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Draw26%
Utrecht48%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Draw24%
Utrecht55%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Draw26%
Utrecht47%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.2
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 38
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
Utrecht
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
19
AttackIn forecast
32
19
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardUtrecht
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.00
ShotsContext
16.40
5.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
33%
On target shareContext
39%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
65%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.80
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
80%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
397
PassesContext
408
313
Accurate passesContext
327
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.11
13.20
FoulsContext
9.20
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.80
ShotsContext
14.25
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.63
30%
On target shareContext
40%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.17
66%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.70
Shots allowedContext
10.63
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.44
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
68%
Save rateContext
82%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
371
PassesContext
407
293
Accurate passesContext
327
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.80
FoulsContext
11.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km648 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Utrecht
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel132 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Sep | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 132 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 648 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
18D. Limnios
80R. Fosso
23P. Brittijn
7K. Peterson
52M. Ihattaren
17J. Lonwijk
9K. Sierhuis
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
14Z. Iqbal
27A. Engwanda
21G. Zechiël
8C. Bozdoğan
15A. Blake
9D. Min
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Utrecht-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Utrecht · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Fortuna Sittard wins2 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 75%
- 18 May 2025Fortuna Sittard0–0Utrecht
- 22 Dec 2024Utrecht2–5Fortuna Sittard
- 11 Feb 2024Utrecht4–0Fortuna Sittard
- 28 Oct 2023Fortuna Sittard0–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.60 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.26 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.10 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.13league 3.38
Red cards0.05league 0.19
Cards 5+11%league 36%
Fouls16.7league 22.7
Penalties0.26league 0.15
Home wins55%league 47%
Fortuna Sittard2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Oct 23H · Utrecht0–01
- L22 Sep 23A · GO Ahead Eagles0–34
Utrecht4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W20 Apr 25H · Ajax4–01
- W12 Jan 25A · Feyenoord2–11
- W24 Nov 24A · NEC Nijmegen2–11
- D28 Oct 23A · Fortuna Sittard0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Utrecht5 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
4
46-60
6
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
