FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen – 18 Oct 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sat, Oct 18 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 16th · 4 pts · 6 played DLWLL

3–4Full time

Bayer Leverkusen 5th · 11 pts · 6 played DWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 53). Absences weigh more on Bayer Leverkusen. FSV Mainz 05 had 12.9 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 14 and had to travel 148 km.

Away travel148 kmRest days12.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

FSV Mainz 0528%

Draw25%

Bayer Leverkusen48%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.75

FSV Mainz 0526%

Draw26%

Bayer Leverkusen47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.59

FSV Mainz 0526%

Draw24%

Bayer Leverkusen49%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.77

FSV Mainz 0521%

Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen56%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.96

FSV Mainz 0528%

Draw26%

Bayer Leverkusen46%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.57

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 17

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Bayer Leverkusen

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 79

68 AttackIn forecast 87

56 DefenceIn forecast 79

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Bayer Leverkusen

0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

33% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 17%

13.00 ShotsContext 12.00

2.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

22% On target shareContext 42%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

77% Box shareContext 61%

6% ConversionContext 17%

3.60 OffsidesContext 1.60

14.00 Shots allowedContext 11.83

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.17 BlocksContext 2.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17

60% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 57%

409 PassesContext 564

321 Accurate passesContext 496

78% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.17 FoulsContext 10.33

12.17 Fouls sufferedContext 12.67

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

60% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.90 ShotsContext 12.40

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

26% On target shareContext 41%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

73% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 15%

3.67 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.60 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.67 BlocksContext 2.56

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

64% Save rateContext 62%

54% PossessionIn forecast 56%

415 PassesContext 545

330 Accurate passesContext 478

80% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.90 FoulsContext 10.20

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km828 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bayer Leverkusen

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel148 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Oct	14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	148 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	828 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Rieß(G)

31D. Kohr 16S. Bell 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 22N. Veratschnig

7J. Lee 8P. Nebel

17B. Hollerbach

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Flekken(G)

12E. Tapsoba 5L. Badé 8R. Andrich

20Álex Grimaldo 24Aleix García 6E. Fernández 13Arthur

19E. Poku 7J. Hofmann

35Christian Kofane

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+1.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Bayer Leverkusen-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.33

Bayer Leverkusen · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws5 Bayer Leverkusen wins

Goals per game1.13 – 2.00 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

17 May 2025FSV Mainz 052–2Bayer Leverkusen
14 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–0FSV Mainz 05
23 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FSV Mainz 05
30 Sep 2023FSV Mainz 050–3Bayer Leverkusen
19 Feb 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–3FSV Mainz 05
27 Aug 2022FSV Mainz 050–3Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	2.00
Conceded per game	1.67	1.33
Match goals	2.50	3.33	3.04
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	58%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	83%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	67%	0%
Games	6	6

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	2.00
Conceded per game	1.67	1.33
Match goals	2.50	3.33	3.04
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	58%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	83%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	67%	0%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.17	4.00
Corners conceded	3.17	6.00
Match total	9.34	10.00	10.20
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.67	3.00
Opponent cards	1.50	3.50
Match total	4.17	6.50	4.49
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	100% 6/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	4.22
Corners conceded	3.20	5.78
Match total	9.90	10.00	10.20
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.70
Opponent cards	1.80	3.00
Match total	4.00	5.70	4.49
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.76league 4.25

Red cards0.29league 0.25

Cards 5+47%league 44%

Fouls22.6league 22.8

Penalties0.24league 0.42

Home wins41%league 42%

FSV Mainz 052 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L19 Jan 25A · Union Berlin1–22
L28 Sep 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–24

Bayer Leverkusen

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.