FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – 5 Dec 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 13 Fri, Dec 5 · 19:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 18th · 6 pts · 12 played LDLDL

0–1Full time

Borussia Mönchengladbach 12th · 13 pts · 12 played LWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. FSV Mainz 05 had 5 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 and had to travel 186 km.

Away travel186 kmRest days5 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

FSV Mainz 0546%

Draw26%

Borussia Mönchengladbach28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.22

FSV Mainz 0545%

Draw27%

Borussia Mönchengladbach29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.17

FSV Mainz 0546%

Draw26%

Borussia Mönchengladbach29%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.23

FSV Mainz 0539%

Draw26%

Borussia Mönchengladbach35%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.37

FSV Mainz 0545%

Draw27%

Borussia Mönchengladbach28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 52

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Mönchengladbach

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

68 AttackIn forecast 34

56 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Mönchengladbach

0.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

1.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.58

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 42%

11.00 ShotsContext 11.67

2.91 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.91

24% On target shareContext 39%

9.09 Shots in the boxContext 8.64

73% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 11%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.50

15.25 Shots allowedContext 14.58

5.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.08

4.36 BlocksContext 4.00

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

62% Save rateContext 64%

47% PossessionIn forecast 46%

378 PassesContext 418

285 Accurate passesContext 350

75% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.33 FoulsContext 10.83

11.92 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.42 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

60% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.00 ShotsContext 10.90

2.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

26% On target shareContext 41%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

67% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.60 Shots allowedContext 15.50

5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

4.11 BlocksContext 4.10

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

62% Save rateContext 63%

47% PossessionIn forecast 44%

392 PassesContext 403

295 Accurate passesContext 335

75% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.20 FoulsContext 10.90

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km446 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel186 km770 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Nov	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	186 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	446 km	770 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-5-2

33D. Batz(G)

5M. Leitsch 25A. Hanche-Olsen 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 10N. Amiri 6K. Sano 30S. Widmer

44N. Weiper 36Fabio Moreno Fell

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Borussia Mönchengladbach Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33M. Nicolas(G)

4K. Diks 30N. Elvedi 29J. Scally

20L. Netz 6Y. Engelhardt 27R. Reitz 17J. Castrop

13G. Reyna 18S. Machino

15H. Tabaković

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-4
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.67

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 0–1 A	L 4–6 H
Werder Bremen	D 1–1 H	L 0–4 H
VfB Stuttgart	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
Bayer Leverkusen	L 3–4 H	D 1–1 A
Hamburger SV	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 H
RB Leipzig	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 H
1.FC Köln	L 0–1 H	W 3–1 H
Points	1 of 24 · 0.13 per game	7 of 24 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 FSV Mainz 05 wins5 draws0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.88 Over 2.538% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

7 Mar 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–3FSV Mainz 05
25 Oct 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
2 Mar 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
6 Oct 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–2FSV Mainz 05
24 Feb 2023FSV Mainz 054–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
4 Sep 2022Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	0.92	1.33
Conceded per game	1.92	1.58
Match goals	2.83	2.92	2.85
Over 1.5	75%	67%
Over 2.5	42%	58%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	42%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	42%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	12	12

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.60
Conceded per game	2.10	1.80
Match goals	3.10	3.40	2.85
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	4.91	4.82
Corners conceded	3.91	5.55
Match total	8.82	10.37	9.76
Over 8.5	45% 5/11	73% 8/11
Over 9.5	45% 5/11	55% 6/11
Over 10.5	27% 3/11	45% 5/11
Cards
Cards	2.83	1.58
Opponent cards	1.75	2.50
Match total	4.58	4.08	4.13
Over 3.5	75% 9/12	42% 5/12
Over 4.5	42% 5/12	42% 5/12

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	4.11
Corners conceded	3.33	5.44
Match total	7.44	9.55	9.76
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.60
Opponent cards	2.40	2.70
Match total	5.20	4.30	4.13
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.95

Red cards0.19league 0.21

Cards 5+42%league 42%

Fouls23.2league 21.6

Penalties0.37league 0.33

Home wins33%league 44%

FSV Mainz 059 with this referee

Record1-5-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

D15 Mar 25H · SC Freiburg2–22
W11 Jan 25H · VfL Bochum2–00
D3 Nov 24A · SC Freiburg0–02
L15 Sep 24H · Werder Bremen1–23
D28 Apr 24H · 1.FC Köln1–15

Borussia Mönchengladbach4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D4 Mar 23H · SC Freiburg0–05
W28 Jan 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim4–11
D23 Apr 22A · SC Freiburg3–34
W20 Nov 21H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth4–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.