FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 6 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 5.9 and had to travel 32 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel32 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
FSV Mainz 0555%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
FSV Mainz 0550%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt25%
FSV Mainz 0555%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt22%
FSV Mainz 0547%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt30%
FSV Mainz 0555%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
25°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 38%
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 136
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
68
AttackIn forecast
54
56
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05Eintracht Frankfurt
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
0.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
50%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.00
ShotsContext
17.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
32%
On target shareContext
32%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
75%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.00
Shots allowedContext
18.00
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.50
4.50
BlocksContext
5.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
6.00
100%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
406
PassesContext
473
327
Accurate passesContext
382
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.37
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.50
FoulsContext
10.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.90
ShotsContext
14.10
5.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
36%
On target shareContext
38%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
70%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.63
10.40
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
2.60
BlocksContext
4.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
62%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
381
PassesContext
477
308
Accurate passesContext
402
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.70
FoulsContext
9.60
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
DW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km828 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 4 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 5.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 828 km | 847 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
27R. Zentner(G)
48K. Potulski
3F. Gruber
4S. Posch
6K. Sano
2P. Mwene
10N. Amiri
7J. Lee
19A. Caci
9P. Tietz
23S. Becker
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
3L. Brassier
4R. Koch
37J. Maluze
26K. Kosugi
25R. Onyedika
15N. Aséko Nkili
2E. Baum
42C. Uzun
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 FSV Mainz 05 wins4 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 22 Mar 2026FSV Mainz 052–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 9 Nov 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 4 May 2025FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 21 Dec 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–3FSV Mainz 05
- 26 Jan 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 27 Aug 2023FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 5.50 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.90 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.00 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 11.00 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.60 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 136 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 3.47
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+54%league 21%
Fouls21.9league 23.2
Penalties0.30league 0.05
Home wins45%league 53%
FSV Mainz 0511 with this referee
Record5-1-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against4 · 0
- L12 Apr 26H · SC Freiburg0–11
- L17 Jan 26A · 1.FC Köln1–24
- L26 Oct 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–22
- D19 Apr 25H · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W22 Feb 25H · FC St. Pauli2–03
Eintracht Frankfurt12 with this referee
Record5-5-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D8 Mar 26A · FC St. Pauli0–01
- W16 Mar 25A · VfL Bochum3–11
- L1 Mar 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–41
- W10 Nov 24A · VfB Stuttgart3–23
- L24 Aug 24A · Borussia Dortmund0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 052 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt2 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 16 · conceded 23
4
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
