Bundesliga Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 7 2026 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
2–2 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 2.82 – 0.98
VfB Stuttgart
  • J. Lee 39’
  • D. da Costa 90+1’
  • 76’ E. Demirović
  • 77’ D. Undav
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

FSV Mainz 05 snatch a late draw

VfB Stuttgart entered as narrow favourites and led 2–1 after 77 minutes through goals from Demirović and Undav. But da Costa scored to rescue a draw for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 finished with the higher xG (2.82 vs 0.98). On the chances created, FSV Mainz 05 deserved more: 2.4 expected points against the 1 point they took.

FSV Mainz 0535%
Draw ✓25%
VfB Stuttgart40%

Model vs reality

FSV Mainz 05 goals
2
Model 1.51 · xG 2.82
VfB Stuttgart goals
2
Model 1.62 · xG 0.98
Total goals
4
Model 3.13 · xG 3.80
Score 2–2
7%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 60%
Both scored
Yes
Model 63%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchD. da CostaFSV Mainz 05 · 1 goal · 1 assist
8.2
  • RefereeMatthias Jollenbeck
  • VenueMEWA ARENA
  • Table before kick-offFSV Mainz 05 14th · VfB Stuttgart 4th

Timeline

  1. J. Lee 1–0Assist D. da Costa
    39’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. ⇄ N. NarteyFor L. Assignon
    65’
  4. ⇄ S. Katompa MvumpaFor S. Becker
    74’
  5. ⇄ Finn JeltschFor L. Jaquez
    75’
  6. ⇄ Tiago TomásFor C. Führich
    75’
  7. E. Demirović 1–1Assist D. Undav
    76’
  8. D. Undav 1–2Assist Tiago Tomás
    77’
  9. Tiago TomásYellow card · Delay of game
    82’
  10. ⇄ Jeremy ArevaloFor D. Undav
    84’
  11. ⇄ R. HendriksFor M. Mittelstädt
    84’
  12. ⇄ N. WeiperFor S. Widmer
    85’
  13. D. da Costa 2–2
    90+1’
  14. ⇄ N. VeratschnigFor D. da Costa
    90+2’
  15. ⇄ W. BøvingFor P. Nebel
    90+2’
  16. ⇄ A. SiebFor J. Lee
    90+2’
  17. J. ChabotYellow card · Holding
    90+5’
  18. Full time · 2–2

Team stats

FSV Mainz 0517 shots · 13 in box, 4 outside
VfB Stuttgart11 shots · 8 in box, 3 outside
FSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
38% Possession 62%
2.82 Expected goals (xG) 0.98
2.40 Expected points (xPts) 0.45
17 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 4
8 Shots off target 4
3 Blocked shots 3
13 Shots inside the box 8
4 Shots outside the box 3
310 Passes 522
73% Pass accuracy 84%
5 Corners 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
7.16 Team rating 6.92

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2

337.5 D. Batz(G)
316.6 D. Kohr 46.9 S. Posch 218.2★ D. da Costa A↓90’
26.9 P. Mwene 77.5 J. Lee ↓90’ 66.9 K. Sano 87.9 P. Nebel ↓90’ 306.7 S. Widmer ↓85’
237.2 S. Becker ↓74’ 206.5 P. Tietz
  • 33D. Batz (G)7.5
  • 31D. Kohr6.6
  • 4S. Posch6.9
  • 21D. da Costa ★A↓90’8.2
  • 2P. Mwene6.9
  • 7J. Lee↓90’7.5
  • 6K. Sano6.9
  • 8P. Nebel↓90’7.9
  • 30S. Widmer↓85’6.7
  • 23S. Becker↓74’7.2
  • 20P. Tietz6.5

Substitutes used

  • 22N. Veratschnig↑90’
  • 26S. Katompa Mvumpa↑74’6.7
  • 44N. Weiper↑85’6.6
  • 14W. Bøving↑90’
  • 11A. Sieb↑90’

Unused: L. Rieß, K. Potulski, L. Maloney, Sota Kawasaki

VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1

337.5 A. Nübel(G)
77.3 M. Mittelstädt ↓84’ 246.7 J. Chabot 147.2 L. Jaquez ↓75’ 226.3 L. Assignon ↓65’
67.2 A. Stiller 166.3 A. Karazor
106.9 C. Führich ↓75’ 267.7 D. Undav A↓84’ 186.5 J. Leweling
96.9 E. Demirović
  • 33A. Nübel (G)7.5
  • 7M. Mittelstädt↓84’7.3
  • 24J. Chabot6.7
  • 14L. Jaquez↓75’7.2
  • 22L. Assignon↓65’6.3
  • 6A. Stiller7.2
  • 16A. Karazor6.3
  • 10C. Führich↓75’6.9
  • 26D. UndavA↓84’7.7
  • 18J. Leweling6.5
  • 9E. Demirović6.9

Substitutes used

  • 3R. Hendriks↑84’6.5
  • 29Finn Jeltsch↑75’6.3
  • 28N. Nartey↑65’6.2
  • 8Tiago TomásA↑75’6.6
  • 25Jeremy Arevalo↑84’6.7

Unused: F. Bredlow, A. Al Dakhil, B. Bouanani, Chema Andrés

Player stats

Top rated
D. da CostaFSV Mainz 058.2
2nd
P. NebelFSV Mainz 057.9
3rd
D. UndavVfB Stuttgart7.7

FSV Mainz 05

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
D. Batz G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 73% 30 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
D. Kohr M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 79% 42 1 1 0/1 2/2 6.6
S. Posch D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 71% 35 2 0 0/1 1/2 6.9
D. da Costa D 90 1 1 1 (1) 1 80% 41 3 0 1/2 0/1 8.2
P. Mwene D 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 70% 27 0 1 1/1 0/1 6.9
J. Lee M 90 1 0 3 (1) 0 80% 25 1 2 0/0 0/1 7.5
K. Sano M 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 74% 19 2 1 0/0 0/1 6.9
P. Nebel M 90 0 0 1 (0) 4 76% 29 5 0 0/1 2/0 7.9
S. Widmer D 85 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 23 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.7
S. Becker F 74 0 0 1 (1) 4 86% 7 0 1 0/0 0/0 7.2
P. Tietz F 90 0 0 4 (2) 2 43% 28 0 1 0/1 1/2 6.5
N. Veratschnig D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
S. Katompa Mvumpa F 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
N. Weiper F 5 0 0 1 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.6
W. Bøving M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
A. Sieb M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
A. Nübel G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 81% 32 0 0 0/0 0/2 7.5
M. Mittelstädt D 84 0 0 1 (1) 2 81% 58 4 1 2/3 0/0 7.3
J. Chabot D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 92% 73 2 2 0/0 2/0 6.7
L. Jaquez D 75 0 0 0 (0) 1 88% 65 0 1 1/1 0/0 7.2
L. Assignon D 65 0 0 0 (0) 1 90% 29 2 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
A. Stiller M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 87% 71 0 1 0/0 0/0 7.2
A. Karazor M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 52 1 0 0/0 0/2 6.3
C. Führich M 75 0 0 1 (0) 1 93% 40 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.9
D. Undav F 84 1 1 1 (1) 2 73% 22 1 0 0/1 2/0 7.7
J. Leweling F 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 73% 37 1 0 2/3 0/0 6.5
E. Demirović F 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 63% 16 1 0 1/2 4/1 6.9
R. Hendriks D 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
Finn Jeltsch D 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 7 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
N. Nartey M 25 0 0 1 (0) 1 100% 11 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.2
Tiago Tomás F 15 0 1 0 (0) 1 100% 5 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.6
Jeremy Arevalo F 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 3 0 0 1/2 0/1 6.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.