FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
FSV Mainz 05
14th · 23 pts · 24 played
WWLDD
2–2Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 46 pts · 24 played
WLWDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 7 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 6 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 3
FSV Mainz 0535%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart40%
FSV Mainz 0532%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart41%
FSV Mainz 0536%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart39%
FSV Mainz 0528%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart48%
FSV Mainz 0536%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart38%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 64
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
68
AttackIn forecast
70
56
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
63%
Scored inContext
92%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.79
ShotsContext
15.04
3.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.83
32%
On target shareContext
39%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
74%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.38
14.46
Shots allowedContext
11.88
5.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
4.09
BlocksContext
3.25
3.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
67%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
364
PassesContext
517
273
Accurate passesContext
437
75%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.83
FoulsContext
9.75
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.04
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
17.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
42%
On target shareContext
39%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
77%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.60
BlocksContext
2.56
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
72%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
350
PassesContext
544
260
Accurate passesContext
462
74%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.30
FoulsContext
8.30
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel148 km145 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 297 km | 145 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
30S. Widmer
23S. Becker
20P. Tietz
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
14L. Jaquez
22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
10C. Führich
26D. Undav
18J. Leweling
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
1.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.17
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-5
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | W 4–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 A | L 0–5 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 23 of 69 · 1.00 per game | 43 of 69 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 FSV Mainz 05 wins3 draws5 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.22 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 26 Oct 2025VfB Stuttgart2–1FSV Mainz 05
- 25 Jan 2025FSV Mainz 052–0VfB Stuttgart
- 31 Aug 2024VfB Stuttgart3–3FSV Mainz 05
- 11 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart3–1FSV Mainz 05
- 16 Sep 2023FSV Mainz 051–3VfB Stuttgart
- 21 May 2023FSV Mainz 051–4VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.33 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 8% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.40 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.09 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 9.26 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 12/22 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 3.63 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 16/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 9/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.90 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.30 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.76
Red cards0.17league 0.17
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls23.0league 20.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins55%league 47%
FSV Mainz 057 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D21 Dec 25H · FC St. Pauli0–01
- L9 Nov 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–14
- W16 Mar 24H · VfL Bochum2–04
- L5 May 23H · FC Schalke 042–34
- W21 Oct 22H · 1.FC Köln5–01
VfB Stuttgart8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W13 Jan 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–22
- W28 Sep 25A · 1.FC Köln2–12
- W6 Apr 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–04
- W22 Sep 23H · SV Darmstadt 983–11
- L4 Nov 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 0524 games · scored 27 · conceded 39
2
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
6
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
5
13
76-90
VfB Stuttgart24 games · scored 48 · conceded 32
3
4
0-15
8
4
16-30
11
7
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
16
13
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
