Fulham vs Bournemouth – 9 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 36 Sat, May 9 · 15:00 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 11th · 48 pts · 35 played WLDWL

0–1Full time

Bournemouth 6th · 52 pts · 35 played DWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 70). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bournemouth. Fulham had 6.9 days of rest, Bournemouth 6 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fulham32%

Draw24%

Bournemouth44%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.72

Fulham38%

Draw27%

Bournemouth35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.30

Fulham33%

Draw25%

Bournemouth42%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.69

Fulham25%

Draw23%

Bournemouth52%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.93

Fulham32%

Draw25%

Bournemouth43%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.61

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 139

Team strength

Fulham

Bournemouth

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

66 AttackIn forecast 83

68 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Bournemouth

1.26 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.49

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

71% Scored inContext 80%

23% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.43 ShotsContext 13.91

3.85 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.74

29% On target shareContext 34%

8.53 Shots in the boxContext 8.53

67% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.09

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.49

3.97 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

3.54 BlocksContext 4.11

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.06

70% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

471 PassesContext 412

394 Accurate passesContext 329

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.89 FoulsContext 11.80

9.37 Fouls sufferedContext 10.51

1.97 Yellow cardsContext 2.31

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 35 and 35 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.79

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

40% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.70 ShotsContext 14.60

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

25% On target shareContext 29%

9.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

72% Box shareContext 56%

7% ConversionContext 10%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

4.00 BlocksContext 4.70

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

72% Save rateContext 81%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

451 PassesContext 435

373 Accurate passesContext 345

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.01

10.70 FoulsContext 11.10

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel151 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May	6Premier League 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	10.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

10T. Cairney 20S. Lukić

19S. Chukwueze 32E. Smith Rowe 8H. Wilson

9Rodrigo Muniz

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 8A. Scott

16M. Tavernier 22E. Kroupi 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham-1.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Bournemouth+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 1.88points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 10-2-5
Scored: 1.65
Conceded: 1.12

Bournemouth · Away 1.29points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 5-7-5
Scored: 1.59
Conceded: 1.94

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Fulham	Bournemouth
Arsenal	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H
Aston Villa	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A
Brentford	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A
Burnley	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
West Ham	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
Tottenham	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Sunderland	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 AL 4–5 H	L 1–3 A
Everton	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H
Manchester United	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 HD 4–4 A
Brighton	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Leeds	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	W 3–0 HD 3–3 A
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Newcastle	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H
Points	48 of 102 · 1.41 per game	49 of 102 · 1.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Fulham wins4 draws4 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.22 – 1.78 Over 2.567% Both scored78% Clean sheets0% · 22%

3 Oct 2025Bournemouth3–1Fulham
14 Apr 2025Bournemouth1–0Fulham
29 Dec 2024Fulham2–2Bournemouth
10 Feb 2024Fulham3–1Bournemouth
26 Dec 2023Bournemouth3–0Fulham
1 Apr 2023Bournemouth2–1Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.26	1.57
Conceded per game	1.40	1.49
Match goals	2.66	3.06	3.16
Over 1.5	71%	77%
Over 2.5	54%	60%	61%
Over 3.5	26%	46%
Both teams scored	54%	66%	63%
Clean sheets	23%	29%
Failed to score	29%	20%
Games	35	35

	Fulham	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.40
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.10	2.20	3.16
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	4.69	5.67
Corners conceded	5.69	5.39
Match total	10.38	11.06	10.04
Over 8.5	77% 27/35	76% 25/33
Over 9.5	66% 23/35	67% 22/33
Over 10.5	46% 16/35	58% 19/33
Cards
Cards	1.97	2.34
Opponent cards	1.74	1.89
Match total	3.71	4.23	3.92
Over 3.5	57% 20/35	63% 22/35
Over 4.5	43% 15/35	43% 15/35

	Fulham	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.50
Corners conceded	5.70	4.90
Match total	10.40	10.40	10.04
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	1.50
Match total	3.40	3.70	3.92
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 139 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.31league 3.80

Red cards0.12league 0.12

Cards 5+27%league 39%

Fouls23.0league 21.6

Penalties0.17league 0.21

Home wins46%league 43%

Fulham10 with this referee

Record4-1-5 Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.9 Pens for · against1 · 1

L8 Nov 25A · Everton0–22
L28 Sep 25A · Aston Villa1–34
L25 May 25H · Manchester City0–20
W16 Mar 25H · Tottenham2–00
W11 Feb 23H · Nottingham Forest2–00

Bournemouth7 with this referee

Record4-1-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 1

W10 Feb 26A · Everton2–13
L6 Apr 24A · Luton1–20
L21 Jan 24H · Liverpool0–41
W25 Nov 23A · Sheffield Utd3–11
W15 Apr 23A · Tottenham3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.