Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fulham were clear favourites.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fulham. Fulham had 6 days of rest, Burnley 7 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fulham61%
Draw22%
Burnley17%
Fulham55%
Draw24%
Burnley21%
Fulham59%
Draw23%
Burnley18%
Fulham53%
Draw25%
Burnley22%
Fulham59%
Draw23%
Burnley18%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 158
Team strength
Fulham
Burnley
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
66
AttackIn forecast
27
68
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamBurnley
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.93
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
77%
Scored inContext
63%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.27
3.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
31%
On target shareContext
31%
8.31
Shots in the boxContext
5.73
67%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.96
11.73
Shots allowedContext
16.60
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.63
3.60
BlocksContext
5.23
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.72
69%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
477
PassesContext
375
400
Accurate passesContext
294
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.07
FoulsContext
10.03
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
10.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
31%
On target shareContext
29%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
70%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.10
Shots allowedContext
16.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.60
BlocksContext
6.63
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
65%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
502
PassesContext
406
423
Accurate passesContext
329
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.80
FoulsContext
9.90
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
21T. Castagne
17A. Iwobi
16S. Berge
14O. Bobb
24J. King
8H. Wilson
9Rodrigo Muniz
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
12B. Humphreys
2K. Walker
29J. Laurent
20J. Ward-Prowse
11J. Anthony
28H. Mejbri
9L. Foster
19Z. Flemming
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Burnley-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.73points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-5
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.20
Burnley · Away
0.60points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-10
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| West Ham | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 AL 4–5 H | L 1–5 A |
| Everton | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Brighton | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Leeds | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Liverpool | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Bournemouth | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 38 of 87 · 1.31 per game | 20 of 87 · 0.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Fulham wins2 draws2 Burnley wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.80
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 13 Dec 2025Burnley2–3Fulham
- 3 Feb 2024Burnley2–2Fulham
- 23 Dec 2023Fulham0–2Burnley
- 10 May 2021Fulham0–2Burnley
- 17 Feb 2021Burnley1–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.93 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 57% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 37% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Fulham | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.50 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 24/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 20/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 13/30 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 2.93 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 18/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 17% 5/30 | |
| Fulham | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 158 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.13
Cards 5+37%league 40%
Fouls21.9league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins39%league 42%
Fulham10 with this referee
Record3-3-4
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L17 Jan 26A · Leeds0–15
- W27 Dec 25A · West Ham1–03
- D24 Aug 25H · Manchester United1–11
- W6 Apr 25H · Liverpool3–23
- W1 Feb 25A · Newcastle2–14
Burnley9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Dec 25A · Bournemouth1–11
- L1 Nov 25H · Arsenal0–22
- W2 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd5–02
- L1 Mar 22H · Leicester0–21
- D23 Oct 21A · Southampton2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham30 games · scored 40 · conceded 43
6
0-15
2
9
16-30
7
7
31-45
6
11
46-60
7
4
61-75
12
12
76-90
Burnley30 games · scored 32 · conceded 58
2
11
0-15
5
6
16-30
7
15
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
10
13
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
7
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
