Fulham vs Chelsea – 24 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 24 · 20:00 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham

2–3Full time

Chelsea

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fulham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fulham. Fulham had 92.2 days of rest, Chelsea 92.2 and had to travel 0 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days92.2 · 92.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Fulham45%

Draw25%

Chelsea30%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.25

Fulham42%

Draw26%

Chelsea32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

Fulham45%

Draw25%

Chelsea30%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.23

Fulham37%

Draw25%

Chelsea37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.41

Fulham45%

Draw25%

Chelsea30%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.22

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

19°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 54%

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 104

Team strength

Fulham

Chelsea

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

66 AttackIn forecast 77

68 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Chelsea

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.56

40% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.10 ShotsContext 13.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

26% On target shareContext 27%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

66% Box shareContext 56%

5% ConversionContext 4%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

11.60 Shots allowedContext 10.60

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.00 BlocksContext 2.44

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

77% Save rateContext 59%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

472 PassesContext 536

396 Accurate passesContext 468

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.67

10.60 FoulsContext 10.40

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest92.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest92.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	92.2Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May	92.2Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 4Jorge Cuenca 3C. Bassey 21T. Castagne

17A. Iwobi 16S. Berge

8César Palacios 24J. King 14O. Bobb

7Gonzalo García

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong

21J. Hato 45R. Lavia 24R. James 27M. Gusto

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer

9João Pedro

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Chelsea+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home No home games yet this season.

Chelsea · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Fulham wins1 draws6 Chelsea wins

Goals per game0.70 – 1.30 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets10% · 60%

7 Jan 2026Fulham2–1Chelsea
30 Aug 2025Chelsea2–0Fulham
20 Apr 2025Fulham1–2Chelsea
26 Dec 2024Chelsea1–2Fulham
13 Jan 2024Chelsea1–0Fulham
2 Oct 2023Fulham0–2Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.83
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Fulham	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.90
Conceded per game	0.90	1.90
Match goals	1.60	2.80	2.83
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	60%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.25
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Fulham	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.90
Corners conceded	5.00	4.10
Match total	10.70	10.00	8.25
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.50
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.50	4.30	3.75
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 104 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.37league 3.33

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+48%league 22%

Fouls22.6league 24.9

Penalties0.24league 0.22

Home wins54%league 78%

Fulham6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

L1 Feb 26A · Manchester United2–31
W1 Nov 25H · Wolves3–01
D26 Oct 24A · Everton1–10
L4 Nov 23H · Manchester United0–15
D29 Oct 22H · Everton0–02

Chelsea8 with this referee

Record3-0-5 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1

W17 Jan 26H · Brentford2–03
L11 May 25A · Newcastle0–23
L25 Jan 25A · Manchester City1–32
L30 Dec 24A · Ipswich0–24
L20 Oct 24A · Liverpool1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.