Fulham vs Manchester United – 24 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 16:30 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 14th · 1 pts · 1 played D

1–1Full time

Manchester United 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fulham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Fulham had 8.1 days of rest, Manchester United 7 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fulham42%

Draw25%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.38

Fulham42%

Draw27%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Fulham42%

Draw26%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.35

Fulham35%

Draw26%

Manchester United40%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.55

Fulham42%

Draw27%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.26

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 128

Team strength

Fulham

Manchester United

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

66 AttackIn forecast 72

68 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Manchester United

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

70% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 16.10

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

33% On target shareContext 33%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

67% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.50 Shots allowedContext 7.90

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

3.60 BlocksContext 2.40

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.43

63% Save rateContext 53%

51% PossessionIn forecast 60%

428 PassesContext 505

361 Accurate passesContext 429

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.06

12.10 FoulsContext 9.40

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug	7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	143 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

30K. Sessegnon 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 2K. Tete

16S. Berge 20S. Lukić

17A. Iwobi 24J. King 21T. Castagne

9Rodrigo Muniz

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Bayındır(G)

23L. Shaw 4M. de Ligt 15L. Yoro

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 16A. Diallo

7Mason Mount 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham+0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Manchester United+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home No home games yet this season.

Manchester United · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Fulham wins1 draws6 Manchester United wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.38 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets0% · 38%

26 Jan 2025Fulham0–1Manchester United
16 Aug 2024Manchester United1–0Fulham
24 Feb 2024Manchester United1–2Fulham
4 Nov 2023Fulham0–1Manchester United
28 May 2023Manchester United2–1Fulham
13 Nov 2022Fulham1–2Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.98
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Fulham	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.98
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	7.00	7.00	9.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	4.00
Match total	6.00	5.00	3.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Fulham	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.22
Corners conceded	4.89	4.44
Match total	8.89	9.66	9.00
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.80
Match total	3.60	5.30	3.50
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 128 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.39

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 39%

Fouls21.7league 21.2

Penalties0.26league 0.22

Home wins38%league 56%

Fulham7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 2

W6 Apr 25H · Liverpool3–23
W1 Feb 25A · Newcastle2–14
D8 Dec 24H · Arsenal1–14
L9 Oct 22A · West Ham1–33
D27 Nov 21A · Preston1–12

Manchester United12 with this referee

Record8-1-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.6 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds1

L16 May 25A · Chelsea0–16
L29 Sep 24H · Tottenham0–36
W28 Feb 24A · Nottingham Forest1–01
W6 Dec 23H · Chelsea2–14
L30 Sep 23H · Crystal Palace0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.