Premier League Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 17 2025 · 16:30 Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United
0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.52 – 1.31
Arsenal
  • 13’ R. Calafiori
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Calafiori goal decides it for Arsenal

Arsenal entered as favourites and won 1–0 through a Calafiori goal. The chances were even, with xG of 1.52 and 1.31. On the chances created, Manchester United deserved more: 1.5 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Manchester United23%
Draw24%
Arsenal ✓53%

Model vs reality

Manchester United goals
0
Model 1.18 · xG 1.52
Arsenal goals
1
Model 1.88 · xG 1.31
Total goals
1
Model 3.06 · xG 2.83
Score 0–1
8%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 59%
Both scored
No
Model 59%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchDavid RayaArsenal
8.2
  • RefereeSimon Hooper
  • VenueOld Trafford

Timeline

  1. R. Calafiori 0–1
    13’
  2. R. CalafioriYellow card · Foul
    42’
  3. Half time · 0–1
  4. ⇄ A. DialloFor Diogo Dalot
    55’
  5. ⇄ K. HavertzFor V. Gyökeres
    60’
  6. ⇄ C. MaduekeFor Gabriel Martinelli
    60’
  7. ⇄ M. UgarteFor Casemiro
    65’
  8. ⇄ B. ŠeškoFor Mason Mount
    65’
  9. ⇄ J. TimberFor B. White
    71’
  10. ⇄ M. Lewis-SkellyFor R. Calafiori
    72’
  11. ⇄ J. MaguireFor L. Shaw
    80’
  12. ⇄ Mikel MerinoFor D. Rice
    83’
  13. P. DorguYellow card · Foul
    85’
  14. David RayaYellow card · Time wasting
    85’
  15. J. TimberYellow card · Time wasting
    90+1’
  16. M. Lewis-SkellyYellow card · Foul
    90+3’
  17. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Manchester United22 shots · 15 in box, 7 outside
Arsenal9 shots · 5 in box, 4 outside
Manchester UnitedArsenal
61% Possession 39%
1.52 Expected goals (xG) 1.31
1.52 Expected points (xPts) 1.23
22 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
7 Shots off target 3
8 Blocked shots 3
15 Shots inside the box 5
7 Shots outside the box 4
475 Passes 294
83% Pass accuracy 74%
3 Corners 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
10 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 2
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
7.02 Team rating 7.06

Line-ups

Manchester United 3-4-2-1

16.5 A. Bayındır(G)
236.9 L. Shaw ↓80’ 47.5 M. de Ligt 157.0 L. Yoro
136.9 P. Dorgu 87.9 Bruno Fernandes 187.2 Casemiro ↓65’ 26.9 Diogo Dalot ↓55’
76.9 Mason Mount ↓65’ 196.9 B. Mbeumo
107.0 Matheus Cunha
  • 1A. Bayındır (G)6.5
  • 23L. Shaw↓80’6.9
  • 4M. de Ligt7.5
  • 15L. Yoro7.0
  • 13P. Dorgu6.9
  • 8Bruno Fernandes7.9
  • 18Casemiro↓65’7.2
  • 2Diogo Dalot↓55’6.9
  • 7Mason Mount↓65’6.9
  • 19B. Mbeumo6.9
  • 10Matheus Cunha7.0

Substitutes used

  • 5J. Maguire↑80’6.5
  • 25M. Ugarte↑65’6.3
  • 30B. Šeško↑65’6.2
  • 16A. Diallo↑55’7.3

Unused: T. Heaton, J. Zirkzee, K. Mainoo, T. Fredricson, A. Heaven

Arsenal 4-3-3

18.2★ David Raya(G)
338.2 R. Calafiori ↓72’ 67.0 Gabriel Magalhães 27.3 W. Saliba 47.3 B. White ↓71’
416.3 D. Rice ↓83’ 367.3 Martín Zubimendi 87.7 M. Ødegaard
116.3 Gabriel Martinelli ↓60’ 146.0 V. Gyökeres ↓60’ 76.3 B. Saka
  • 1David Raya (G) ★8.2
  • 33R. Calafiori↓72’8.2
  • 6Gabriel Magalhães7.0
  • 2W. Saliba7.3
  • 4B. White↓71’7.3
  • 41D. Rice↓83’6.3
  • 36Martín Zubimendi7.3
  • 8M. Ødegaard7.7
  • 11Gabriel Martinelli↓60’6.3
  • 14V. Gyökeres↓60’6.0
  • 7B. Saka6.3

Substitutes used

  • 29K. Havertz↑60’6.6
  • 20C. Madueke↑60’6.5
  • 12J. Timber↑71’6.3
  • 49M. Lewis-Skelly↑72’6.7
  • 23Mikel Merino↑83’6.5

Unused: Kepa, E. Nwaneri, Cristhian Mosquera, L. Trossard

Player stats

Top rated
David RayaArsenal8.2
2nd
R. CalafioriArsenal8.2
3rd
Bruno FernandesManchester United7.9

Manchester United

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
A. Bayındır G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 78% 45 0 0 0/0 0/2 6.5
L. Shaw D 80 0 0 0 (0) 1 77% 57 3 0 0/0 1/0 6.9
M. de Ligt D 90 0 0 2 (1) 1 86% 57 2 0 0/0 1/1 7.5
L. Yoro D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 64 1 4 0/0 1/0 7.0
P. Dorgu D 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 79% 28 4 0 1/2 1/4 6.9
Bruno Fernandes M 90 0 0 0 (0) 5 84% 55 3 0 1/2 1/2 7.9
Casemiro M 65 0 0 0 (0) 1 76% 33 3 0 0/0 0/2 7.2
Diogo Dalot D 55 0 0 0 (0) 1 93% 15 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
Mason Mount M 65 0 0 0 (0) 2 77% 26 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
B. Mbeumo M 90 0 0 3 (2) 1 80% 30 0 0 1/1 1/3 6.9
Matheus Cunha F 90 0 0 3 (3) 1 88% 16 1 0 4/6 0/3 7.0
J. Maguire D 10 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 7 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.5
M. Ugarte M 25 0 0 1 (0) 1 89% 19 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.3
B. Šeško F 25 0 0 2 (0) 2 100% 4 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
A. Diallo F 35 0 0 1 (1) 1 84% 19 3 0 2/2 0/2 7.3

Arsenal

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
David Raya G 90 0 0 7 sv 0 46% 28 0 0 0/0 0/0 8.2
R. Calafiori D 72 1 0 1 (1) 0 90% 21 1 0 0/0 2/0 8.2
Gabriel Magalhães D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 27 1 0 0/1 1/2 7.0
W. Saliba D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 26 4 1 1/1 2/0 7.3
B. White D 71 0 0 1 (0) 1 81% 21 2 1 1/1 2/0 7.3
D. Rice M 83 0 0 1 (0) 0 80% 25 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
Martín Zubimendi M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 45 3 1 0/0 2/0 7.3
M. Ødegaard M 90 0 0 2 (1) 1 70% 44 1 1 3/5 1/1 7.7
Gabriel Martinelli F 60 0 0 1 (1) 1 60% 5 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.3
V. Gyökeres F 60 0 0 0 (0) 0 44% 9 0 0 0/1 3/2 6.0
B. Saka F 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 94% 16 3 0 3/8 0/0 6.3
K. Havertz M 30 0 0 0 (0) 0 56% 9 0 0 1/2 0/2 6.6
C. Madueke F 30 0 0 0 (0) 1 88% 8 0 0 0/1 1/1 6.5
J. Timber D 19 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 4 2 0 0/4 2/1 6.3
M. Lewis-Skelly M 18 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.7
Mikel Merino M 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 4 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.5

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.